Moneyball inspired strategy may be key to the Rangers’ playoff hopes returning

The Texas Rangers are in retooling mode as they shift away from the Bruce Bochy Era into a timeline where the youngsters seem primed to take over. However, the organization still believes they can compete in 2026 which means Texas will have to get creative.

Parting ways with the foundation of your 2023 World Series team was necessary but leaves a lot more questions unanswered. Now, President of Baseball Operations Chris Young needs to find suitable replacements that will not just match the production but improve the offensive outlook of the team.

It's a tall task and that's why the Rangers would be better off approaching the offseason acquisitions with a collective goal to not chase after the big name sluggers, rather opt for low-cost production that will improve the mindset of the whole roster.

Time for CY to channel his inner Billy Beane and get production for low cost

In the late 1990s, operating under a slashing of payroll by A's ownership, Sandy Alderson and Billy Beane led a resurgence of how teams viewed players. Instead of going after the big name power hitters, Beane turned to sabermetrics to obtain "undervalued players" focusing on statistics such as on-base percentage to find players.

Upon Beane taking over as the full-time GM in 1997, Beane turned that strategy into four straight playoff appearaces from 2000-04. All while having a bottom-five payroll.

The Rangers and Young find themselves in that exact same position. With owner Ray Davis insistent on lowering the team's payroll to the $200 million mark or below for the 2026 season, it leaves the front office roughly $40-$50 million to field a competitive ball club next year.

Since the offseason began, the Rangers have agreed to deals with several low cost options with high potential. First with catcher Danny Jansen and then relievers Tyler Alexander, Alexis Diaz and re-signing 39-year-old Chris Martin.

Jansen fits the Moneyball strategy, a rather cheap option with the ability to hit 15 homers but also has an extremely high walk rate at 12.5 percent. All in line with Skip Schumaker's change in offensive approach of simplifying at-bats.

They are also betting on resurgences from Josh Jung, Jake Burger and Joc Pederson in 2026 to guide them alongside Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford.

Needing about four to five bullpen arms, a catcher and starting pitcher, Young will not be after big name free agents like Kyle Tucker, J.T. Realumto and Ranger Suarez. Instead, will be attempting to find value in the cost efficient players.

What free agents fit under the Rangers' Moneyball approach?

Biggest mistake the Rangers have made to start the winter is letting some of their free agents (Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton and Hoby Milner) walk to other organizations. Maton and Milner make sense with their $10+ million price tag but Armstrong's deal with Cleveland was rather afffordable at $5.5 million.

Getting close to the new year, the Rangers still need an option or tow for the bullpen, a lower cost starting pitcher and maybe even a right-handed bat.

A good option for backend of the rotation could revolve around former Rangers' Martin Perez or Tyler Mahle. Both are estimated at a market value around $5.5 million AAV. In between the injuries, Mahle was dominant for the Rangers last year. He posted a 2.18 ERA, 66 strikeouts, 29 walks and a 1.13 WHIP in 16 starts.

As far as right-handed bats are concerned, it depends on which direction they want to go. Are they looking for corner infield replacements? A bench bat? Utility? An appealing high-end name is Eugenio Suraez at nearly $15 million AAV but would be a miles better third baseman than Josh Jung.

On the cheaper end, Texas could go with Rob Refsnyder, Randal Gricuk or Ty France somewhere between $4-$7 million. Then they can close out with a handful of cheap minor league contracts or $1.5-$3 million deals to relievers to compete for a spot.

All that to say, it's not ideal what Rangers' ownership is doing to keep cost low but a team can be fielded with a lower payroll. Just need to find the diamonds in the rough and hope for the best.