2024 Texas Rangers Spring Training Preview: First Base

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The Texas Rangers are almost two weeks away from starting their World Series defense with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp. There will be some roster battles that take place and decisions to be made by the coaching staff and front office. One position that likely will not require much thought in 2024 is first base. Nathaniel Lowe in 2022 won a Silver Slugger award based primarily on what he did in the second half that season. He followed that up with his first Gold Glove award in 2023. He is now entering his fourth season with the Texas Rangers. What can Lowe improve upon for 2024, is it time to talk extension with the veteran first baseman, and who is in the running to give him days off at first base?

What will 2024 hold for Nathaniel Lowe at first base?

The first thing the team is likely hoping for is continued health. Lowe has been a player who is in the lineup nearly every day the last three seasons. He played in 157 games in 2021 and 2022 and then 161 in 2023. Then he followed that up by starting every playoff game throughout October and into November. That has been one of Lowe's greatest assets is his ability to play nearly every day.

The second thing is improved production at the plate. That was a frustration throughout 2023 as he saw declines in several offensive numbers. His home runs fell from 27 to 17 from 2022 to 2023 and his batting average fell from .302 to .262. One area that he really needs to address is how to get off to a better start. The last two seasons he has a sub .800 OPS in the first half. In 2022 he followed that up with an OPS of .964 in the second half. The problem in 2023 was his batting average and OPS fell in the second half.

There are specific fixes Lowe can work on for this season. His barrel rate and hard hit rate were down significantly in 2023. His average exit velocity was down from where it was in 2022. His batting average went down against fastballs and breaking balls. The only area where Lowe was barrelling balls was in the middle of the zone. He struggled with pitches located elsewhere. Lowe I would expect is working on bat speed this offseason. He struggled against good fastballs and breaking balls located in the strike zone. The goal this season will be to get that bat head into the zone earlier and put the barrel on the ball more often than he did in 2023.

The one area that saw a massive improvement in 2023 for Lowe was his patience at the plate. He almost doubled the amount of walks that he took. He went from 48 walks in 2022 to 93 walks in 2023. His chase percentage fell from 29.2% in 2022 to 20.7% in 2023. That is one area he can build upon for this season. If this can remain in the same general area and combine that with an increase in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, he can become maybe the best first baseman in the AL and make his first All-Star game.

Defensively Lowe became everything Texas could have hoped he would be. He struggled with picks early in the season. That improved massively as the season progressed. He finished with a .998 fielding percentage, only committed three errors all season, and was a part of 128 double plays converted. He led the AL in putouts and assists. He played more games at first than any other first baseman in the AL with 161. All of this led to a surprise Gold Glove win after the 2023 season. Defense was his weakness heading into 2023 and Lowe put the work in and turned it into a strength.

The goal for Lowe in 2024 is to find a way to combine the Silver Slugger production he had in 2022 with the Gold Glove defense he had in 2023. The talent is there to be the best first basemen in the AL and one of the best in the entire major leagues. That is reachable for Lowe as he gets closer to free agency that will be coming up soon.

Next: Time to talk long-term extension with Lowe?

Is it time for an extension for Nathaniel Lowe?

I think it is time for Texas to determine if they want Lowe for the long term. Lowe is 28 and will turn 29 this July. He is in the prime of his career and will be a free agent after the 2026 season. Texas right now is going year to year with him through the arbitration process. Lowe in his second season of arbitration and is half way to free agency. He will hit free agency after the 2026 season. Texas can continue to go year to year with Lowe. Lowe will see his salary increase from $4 million to $7.5 million for 2024. He will have two more arbitration years after this.

Texas can also decide to extend the first baseman now and probably lock him in at a lower rate. They would be buying out the last two arbitration seasons plus however many free agency seasons Lowe is willing to sacrifice. If they wait and Lowe does have a great season that would add to how much they will have to pay him next year in arbitration and then in his final season before free agency.

The question becomes do they view Lowe as the long-term first baseman? Right now the answer to that question would probably be no. Without a long-term contract in place, it appears they are content with letting Lowe walk in 2026 when he will be 31-years old. If Lowe performs as well as his talent suggests then it might make it hard for Texas to not extend him for multiple seasons.

Next: Who will provide depth at first base in 2024?

Who else will play first base this season?

I do think coming off the workload that Lowe and other players had in 2023 manager Bruce Bochy is going to be trying hard to get guys into the DH spot maybe once a week and that includes Lowe. I would be surprised if he has another season of 161 games at the position. Texas does have some options both internally and potentially externally.

The first internal option is Sam Huff. The backup catcher and part-time first baseman is out of options this season. Texas will need to trade him or risk losing him on waivers. Texas has signed a backup catcher in Andrew Knizner. Huff's role will likely be part-time DH, part-time first baseman, and power-hitting pinch hitter. This will be one of Bochy's more difficult jobs this season is keeping Huff engaged and involved. That will likely come with some starts at first base with Lowe being the DH. It will all be on Huff to produce and earn more at-bats. Bochy proved in 2023 that he will ride the hot hand until it cools off. See what he did with Ezequiel Duran in the first half and Mitch Garver in the second half.

Texas is rumored to have interest in Brandon Belt. He is a former Giant who won World Series with Bruce Bochy in his time with the Giants. Belt is currently a free agent after spending the 2023 season with the Toronto Blue Jays. Belt had 19 home runs in 2023 and is likely looking for another short-term contract. If they do sign Belt he would be able to spell Lowe at first base or fill in if Lowe is injured.

The other options are all minor leaguers. That would include Dustin Harris who is on the 40-man roster and has played first base in the minors. It would also include Abimelec Ortiz who will likely be the first baseman for Frisco this season and is coming off a season where he was the Texas Rangers minor league player of the year and second-team MILB All-Prospect first baseman. The last option was just signed to a minor-league deal and it is Jared Walsh. He will be in camp this spring trying to earn a spot. He was a first baseman for the Angels for the last three seasons but missed most of 2023 with an injury.

There will be options in case something happens to Lowe or if he needs a day off. Heading into 2024 the best option at first base will be Nathaniel Lowe. 2024 could see Lowe take that next step combine the great defense with a productive bat and become the best first baseman in the AL. He could run out to start the All-Star game at his home field this July. It is all in front of Lowe, the question becomes can he reach it?

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