Are the Texas Rangers being underrated heading into Spring Training?

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The offseason is almost over as pitchers and catchers report in 16 days for the Texas Rangers. All of the major sporting books are releasing their preseason over/unders for wins for every team. Texas is coming off winning their first World Series in franchise history, but they are far from being treated as the defending champions. Draftking, Fanduel, and BetMGM have Texas' over/under at 89.5, Ceasars is at 89 and Bet365 is the highest at 90.5. The consensus between all the major sporting books is that Texas will finish behind Houston once again the AL West by three games or fewer. Is this a case of Texas being underrated or properly rated. Lets look both sides of the case and try to decide where Texas will finish up.

The case for Texas being underrated

There have been people on X or Twitter all offseason posting about how no one other than Rangers' fans will remember the 2023 World Series. I am sure people will comment about how they only had to beat an 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks team rather than the Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies. People will forget that Texas returns nearly their entire starting lineup except for Mitch Garver. They are returning four members from the regular season starting rotation in Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning. They have improved upon one of the worst bullpens in the regular season by adding Kirby Yates and David Robertson

The offense has a chance to be better in 2024 than they were in 2023 based upon a full season of Evan Carter and hopefully some better injury luck. That would involve Corey Seager playing closer to a full season and Carter providing increased production in left field. Carter is projected by Fangraphs to hit. 255, with 15 home runs, 73 RBI's, and 16 stolen bases. That would be a tremendous rookie season for Carter. If you combine that with the numbers from Seager, Semien, Garcia, Heim, and Lowe it should lead to a deeper and more consistent lineup from one to nine.

The rotation is led by Nathan Eovaldi to start the season. He is coming off a dominant October that saw him win five of his six starts. He won in the clinching game 5 after navigating through many jams. When he was healthy in the regular season Eovaldi was one of the more dominant starters in the AL in the first half. He will be backed up by Gray, Heaney, Dunning, and then a to-be-determined fifth starter. This is not a great rotation, but it is not a bad rotation either. Those top four combined for 43 wins in 2023 and none had an ERA higher than 4.15.

The story for the Texas Rangers in 2024 will be about the rehabs for Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle. Those three could be ready by late July to join the rotation. Those three joining the rotation in late July will turn the rotation from good to great. If they are healthy and pitching well they can carry this team through August and September. Them coming back will help both the rotation and the bullpen as one or two pitchers will be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen.

If you believe that Texas can play close to .500 ball through the first half and then above .500 when those three join the rotation then 89-90 wins is underrating this team. This team when healthy in 2023 was 40-20 to start 2023. If healthy in August they could pull off another run like that putting them likely above 90 wins.

The case for Texas being properly rated

The sports books have Texas right around their win total of 90 from 2023. There is a strong case that 89-90 wins is about where Texas will end up. The rotation through July is very thin and full of pitchers who regularly miss time. Of the top four pitchers Dane Dunning is probably the only one who can be counted upon to make nearly every start. It will be on Bruce Bochy to not over extend these guys in the first two months especially as most of these pitchers threw a heavy amount of innings in 2023.

The bullpen will be relied upon more especially early in the season. Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz were great in October. Have they turned into dominant relievers or was that just a hot four week stretch? The good thing in 2024 is if Leclerc struggles early then falling back on David Robertson is not a bad option. Robertson also failed in the closer's role for the Marlins after the trade deadline in 2023. I could see a scenario where the starters are only pitching five or six innings or fewer some days and the bullpen is not as good as what the front office is expecting.

The offense also could see a dip in production as it is hard to stay at the level they were at in 2023. Seager already is beginning spring training with an injury and will hopefully be ready for Opening Day. Evan Carter is going to be the starting left fielder and his scouting report this year will be more extensive than in 2023. He will be forced to make more adjustments in his first full season. At DH they will be missing Mitch Garver and do not have a consistent in-house option unless they sign a Brandon Belt to play DH. Adolis Garcia will be the focus of more teams as they try to attack his weaknesses and force him to make constant adjustments. Will Garcia be in the right head space especially coming off a potential arbitration case?

In this scenario, Texas struggles out of the gate and is five or 10 games under .500 in June. The three injured pitchers come back and they turn it around but are only able to get to 89-90 wins. They finish behind Houston as they had too much ground to make up and come up just short in the division race. It is still a good season and they will be positioned to make a similar October run in 2024 as they did in 2023.

Where will Texas finish up in 2024?

If I was betting on Texas' over/under I would take the over. The number to watch in the first half for me is can Texas stay at or around .500 through the middle of June. If they are within two or three games of .500 either above or below they will easily finish above 90 wins. If they are five games or more below .500 then it will be a battle to the finish and they probably finish under the win total.

I think this team will find a different way to win in 2024. The formula in 2023 was six or more innings from the starter and then five or more runs from the offense would almost always lead to a win. I think in 2023 at least through the first half it will require more bullpen handling from Bruce Bochy. I think Texas will have to be very active to maintain fresh arms in the pen. I would not be surprised to see Texas reach down early in the season to get Chase Lee, Marc Church, or Owen White to supplement the pen. It will be a lot more close games, but with Bruce Bochy in the managers' chair I think Texas will be up to the task of winning some of these toss-up games.

When we get to October I think this team will finish up with 92 wins. I do not know if that will be enough to win the division. Houston is still going to be very good. It might come down to how Texas plays in the final 15 games where they play the Mariners in Seattle and back in Arlington and then finish up the season with a six-game trip out west against the A's and Angels. Texas I believe will be hitting their stride around that time and will finish strong and have a chance to win the division.

The beauty of baseball though is that nobody knows what will happen or what players will surprise. Injuries will occur, players will slump, and some unexpected trades will be made. The team that Texas enters camp with will likely be very different from the team they end the season with.

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