Financial uncertainty casts a shadow over Texas Rangers' offseason

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November 1st will always be a happy day for the rest of my life. It was the day the Texas Rangers won their first World Series. It was a day of jubilation followed by a parade of joy. It was the culmination of 52 years in Arlington that finally paid off in a World Series championship. The calendar has now turned to December and pitchers and catchers will report in slightly less than 70 days from now. Texas is slowly putting together their roster for the 2024 season. They have made one major signing, agreeing to a contract with reliever Kirby Yates for one year and 4.5 million. That has been it so far as far as movement.

Texas instead of building onto their roster and solidifying their hold on the American League is taking a wait-and-see approach to free agency and trades. The New York Yankees have already traded for Juan Soto. The Toronto Blue Jays might be on the precipice of signing Shohei Ohtani. Texas meanwhile is sitting around waiting for the market to start moving.

Why is Texas not being more aggressive? Ken Rosenthal this morning on The Athletic laid out what he has heard Texas thinking is for this offseason. Texas according to sources is looking at two paths this winter. Texas is talking with Clayton Kershaw about staying home next season and pitching for Texas or looking at second-tier free-agent starters like Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, or Michael Wacha. Rosenthal mentions that Texas is likely out on Jordan Montgomery due to "financial uncertainty" caused by the potential loss of the media rights deal with Bally Sports. I want to react to that supposed "financial uncertainty" and what it likely means for the construction of the 2024 roster.

Is Texas as poor as they are making it seem?

Texas and "financial uncertainty"

We have written about this already twice before this offseason. Texas is potentially losing $111 million in revenue for the 2024 season. Chris Young said this week that they would have enough money to go sign Shohei Ohtani if needed. That felt more like a message he wanted out there to potential free agents than actual reality.

The old saying is do not listen to what someone says, watch what they do. If you listen to what the front office has been saying it would be inferred that Texas would be in in on several high-priced free agents. If you watch what they have done though it tells a completely different story. They were out on Ohtani very early. They have not even been mentioned as an option for Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They seem to be out on bringing back Jordan Montgomery. It seems like the common denominator between all three of these cases is money. Chris Young can say that they have enough money and ownership is providing the resources necessary, but his actions are telling a much different story.

The good news is that Texas is not to the point where they are trading away players to compensate for the lowered revenue. The Padres' main reason for trading away Juan Soto this week was that they did not want to have to pay the exorbitant amount he would likely get in arbitration this winter. San Diego was dropped by Bally Sports last season and has seen their revenue decrease as a result of that. Texas is not to that point of trading players, but they are not as active as fans would like as they start the defense of their World Series championship.

So what is next for Texas heading into the 2024 season?

What does this mean for the 2024 season?

The main takeaway from this piece is that there should be no expectation that Texas is going to be invovled with any of the high-priced free agents this winter. That means not only letting Jordan Montgomery go, but also not getting involved with Josh Hader either. It likely means letting Mitch Garver walk. I would say anyone wanting to make over $10 million next season is probably not someone Texas is going to try and sign.

Ken Rosenthal mentions in his piece about signing pitchers like Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, or Michael Wacha. Each of those pitchers will likely sign for less than $10 million. Wacha made 7.5 million last season, Manaea made right at $10 million his last year of arbitration, and Montas made 7.5 million. Montas missed almost all of the 2023 season, Manaea spent most of the season in the bullpen, and Wacha only made 24 starts and barely pitched over 100 innings in 2023. Texas could sign each of them for likely less than $10 million.

The other pitcher Texas could sign is Clayton Kershaw. He has been the white whale that they have been chasing for the last three offseasons. Each time Kershaw entertains their offer and then chooses to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers. His priority has been winning and the Dodgers gave him a better shot to win. That is no longer the case as Texas is coming off winning a World Series and the Dodgers are the ones facing questions. Kershaw himself is facing questions as he had shoulder surgery soon after the Dodgers' season ended. He will not be ready to pitch on Opening Day if he can pitch at all in 2024.

Texas is already not going to have Jacob deGrom till July or August. They could sign Kershaw and work on his recovery and install both him and deGrom by August into the rotation and have two fresh arms for the stretch run. Kershaw who made $20 million in 2023 would likely sign for much less since he is not going to pitch a full season. Texas might be able to get him for $10 million with certain incentives built in to increase that final total. This is all speculation as no one knows if he is willing to leave the only organization he has played for. The question for Kershaw will be does he trust his recovery process to a new team of doctors or does he want to fall back on the ones he already knows and who knows him?

I think it is clear though from everything that is getting out from the Texas Rangers front office that they want to tamp down expectations from fans about how active they are going to be. They are defending World Series champions, but they are going to be cautious about how they spend their money this offseason. They still are going to put together a roster that can repeat, but they are not going to be spending as much money as they have the last two offseasons. If you had dreams like me about a Shohei Ohtani DH, Josh Hader closing, and with Jordan Montgomery coming back then it is probably time to send those dreams back into the fantasy world.

Just remember that in less than 70 days this team that Chris Young has assembled will emerge from the shadows and onto the practice fields in Surprise, Arizona. They will be there to start the defense of the team's first World Series championship.

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Is Texas as poor as they are making it seem?

Texas and "financial uncertainty"

So what is next for Texas heading into the 2024 season?

What does this mean for the 2024 season?

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