Is Dane Dunning going to start Opening Day for the Texas Rangers?

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Opening Day is still a little over five weeks away and spring training games have not even gotten underway. It was announced on Tuesday that Dane Dunning will start the opening game of the Cactus League schedule for Texas when they take on the Kansas City Royals. The Opening Day starter will not be announced for another three to four weeks. Dunning getting the start on Friday indicates that he could be in the running for that start against the Chicago Cubs. Here are three reasons why starting Dunning that night might be the right idea for Bochy and the team.

#1- Dunning's durability in 2023

Texas suffered a number of pitching injuries throughout the 2023 season. deGrom and his Tommy John, Nathan Eovaldi's right forearm strain, Jon Gray and his variety of injuries, and Max Scherzer's back injury. Dunning though did not miss any time for the Texas Rangers in 2023. He started the season in the bullpen, moved into the rotation when deGrom went down, and then finished the season in the pen again after Texas acquired Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery.

Dunning did all of this coming off of hip surgery he had at the end of the 2022 season. He made pitched in 35 games and made 26 starts. He threw 172 2/3 innings in 2023 which is a career high for the 28-year old right hander. He was someone that Bochy could count on to give the Rangers length in games and quality. Dunning in 2023 had 12 quality starts among his 26 total starts. A quality start is defined as six innings or more with three runs or fewer allowed. Dunning was regularly making starts of five or more innings as well.

Bochy will know that if Dunning is the Opening Day starter that he will give the Texas Rangers length and give them a chance to win. Dunning in 2023 did get 12 wins which tied with Nathan Eovaldi for the team high in wins.

#2- Dunning is the longest-tenured Texas Ranger in the rotation

Texas traded Lance Lynn to Chicago after the 2020 season in exchange for Dunning. He has been here for the 102-loss season in 2021 and the 94-loss season in 2022. He was around for the Chris Woodward era and is now playing under Bruce Bochy. He was there for the dark days when Texas was trading away stars like Kyle Gibson and Joey Gallo. He has held onto his spot on the roster from the rebuilding years into the years of contention.

Dunning never lost faith in himself or the team. He rehabbed from a serious hip injury and returned to have the best season of his career. Now he has seen the team come out the other end and even win an unexpected World Series championship in 2023. Now with the departure of Martin Perez, Dunning is the longest tenured Texas Ranger in the rotation. He is among the longest-tenured Rangers on the team. He is surpassed only by Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez on the pitching staff. That time of service to this organization would be a reason to give Dunning the Opening Day nod.

#3- Dunning was the MVP of the pitching staff in 2023

Each manager has their own decision-making process when it comes to Opening Day. Some managers will tap the ace of their staff and call it a day. Some will go with whoever was the best pitcher in the previous season. Some will go with the big free agent signing. Bochy last year went with deGrom. He mentioned at the time he had given strong consideration to Martin Perez. He wanted to reward Perez for how he pitched in 2022. In the end, deGrom was healthy and that is who he went with.

Dunning is not Texas' best starter that is available. That honor would go to Nathan Eovaldi. Dunning was the most important pitcher on the entire staff for Texas throughout the 2023 season. He was an excellent long man throughout April. He had a 1.77 ERA pitching out of the pen in the season's first month. He then shifted to the rotation when deGrom was hurt. His excellent pitching continued as he had a 2.28 ERA in May. As the season went along he increased his strikeouts per nine innings from April to the end of the season. He had a 4.9 strikeouts per nine in April and in August he increased that to 11.5. He then was a solid option throughout the postseason. He made five appearances and did not allow a run in three of them.

It could be an unorthodox option if Bochy chooses to go with Dunning on Opening Day, but it should not be surprising either. These reasons and more means Bochy can reward Dunning with that honor. For now, Dunning will just be given the Cactus League Opening Day start. He will likely pitch one or two innings and call it a day as he continues his work to get ready for the 2024 season.

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