Should the Texas Rangers have been more active in the reliever market this offseason?

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The Texas Rangers bullpen was their glaring weakness in 2023. They trailed only the Rockies and Guardians in blown saves last season with 33 and had the sixth worst collective bullpen ERA in the league at 4.77. They were also tied for third with the Royals in most home runs given up by a bullpen at 85. The Rangers found a stroke of luck in the postseason as Josh Sborz and Jose Leclerc both hit hot streaks and started performing at their career bests when it mattered most. Bruce Bochy will no doubt look to those two for major contributions out of the bullpen again this year. But the Rangers need more than two reliable arms in relief to get through the regular season and into the postseason again.

As a Rangers fan, it had initially frustrated me that the Rangers had not been more aggressive this off-season in pursuing relievers. It's such a glaring weakness. Chris Young and the front office have also shown themselves to be aggressive in the last few years in building the Rangers talent and improving weaknesses on the roster. They spent half a billion dollars on elite hitting and fielding with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and another $275 million between DeGrom, Eovaldi, and Jon Gray to greatly improve the quality of starting pitching. So naturally, I figured they would spend and get a big name reliever or two to greatly improve the outlook of the bullpen going into 2024.

But here we sit on January 24th and two guys many would have loved the Rangers to target in Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson, are division rivals instead of Rangers. Jordan Hicks is being converted back to a starter in San Francisco. The market for big time relievers has run dry. The Rangers missing out on all three of those guys likely has at least something to do with Bally's issues. Their bankruptcy and the unknowns surrounding the Rangers revenue and where games will be broadcast in 2024 have certainly tightened the front office's pockets. But then again, maybe the front office never intended to spend anyways.

Next: bullpen spending and production

Correlation between bullpen spending and production

In trying to make sense of the front office's strategy to not pursue any big name relievers this off-season, I started digging. I wanted to find out the correlation between bullpen spending and production to better assess the front office's strategy. What I found was surprising but also encouraging for how the Rangers front office has handled the bullpen this off-season.

For starters, the Rangers already had the fourth highest bullpen payroll last year at $35,269,829. It is worth noting that Martin Perez's $19.65 million salary from last season was included in that calculation although he was signed as a starter and eventually moved to the bullpen. Without his salary factored into the bullpen, the Rangers would have still sat top 10 in bullpen payroll at number nine. They didn't break the bank on the bullpen last year, but they didn't exactly pinch pennies either. Most importantly, even though they spent some, it did not result in good production.

So I started diving into what some of the payrolls from the better bullpens last season looked like. In terms of cumulative bullpen ERA, the top three bullpens were the Yankees, Brewers, and Dodgers. When you look at their 2023 bullpen payroll, the Dodgers spent the most of the three and they were 11th in bullpen payroll. The Brewers were 18th and the Yankees were 25th with a mere two percent of their total payroll coming from the bullpen.

Next: metrics and makeup

More bullpen metrics and makeup

I also looked into successful saves as another metric to measure the best bullpens by. This was a major area the Rangers struggled in as they converted less than half of their save opportunities. The top three bullpens in terms of saves were the Reds, Braves, and Blue Jays. The Braves were fifth in bullpen payroll, the Blue Jays eighth, and the Reds were number 20. By this metric spending helped a little more as the Braves and Blue Jays were on the higher side of bullpen payrolls, but the Reds show us still that spending isn't everything.

Ultimately, bullpen's are very hard to construct and some combination of spending as well as finding the right mix of guys that complement and feed off each other is necessary. There is also of course, a little luck involved. The reality is, regardless of if the Rangers are in a financial position to be able to spend big or not right now, it would still not guarantee success out of the bullpen in 2024. The correlation between bullpen spending and production just isn't that high. The Rangers strategy of picking up a volume of cheap arms is likely their best bet for a better bullpen in 2024.

Teams like the Yankees, Reds, and Brewers have shown that it is possible to have a successful bullpen with a low payroll. With the number of options the Rangers have in spring training between returning guys, cheap off-season pick ups, and emerging minor league pitchers, the bullpen is likely to be better in 2024. From purely a probability perspective, it would be hard to have that many options and still not find a better mix than one of the worst bullpens in the league last year. Bochy and Mike Maddux will get to test all their options out in various situations during spring training, and I expect they will craft a more effective bullpen in 2024 despite no big spending.

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Correlation between bullpen spending and production

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More bullpen metrics and makeup

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