Texas Rangers: 4 impressions from the series against the Tampa Bay Rays

The Texas Rangers lost two of three this past weekend against the Tampa Bay Rays. This ended their series win streak at six, but they still maintain a five-game division lead over the Houston Astros. The scores of the games this weekend did not reflect a close series, but these two teams are not that far apart. It was a telling series in that it did show that Texas can compete with the best teams in the league, but they just have some minor issues that need to be resolved between now and October. Here are my four impressions that I observed from this series.

Texas Rangers Vs Tampa Bay Rays Impression #1

Spencer Howard is not a major league pitcher. He was brought up last week and replaced Jonathan Hernandez on the roster. I know the argument is probably that he only had two rehab appearances before calling him up and the Rangers rushed him to the majors. Sure, that could be the case. I am not sure if he had received 10 rehab appearances if the result would be different.

Howard was brought into Friday night's game with the Rays leading 4-1 in the sixth inning. He hit Randy Arozarena, gave up a home run to Isaac Paredes, walked Jose Siri, gave up a single to Christian Bethancourt, a single to Manuel Margot, a single to Taylor Walls, and then finally got his first out on a 102.6mph line out to left fielder Ezequiel Duran. He pitched 1/3 of an inning, gave up four runs, four hits, had one walk, and one hit batter. He was then sent back to Round Rock the next day.

This continued a disturbing trend for Howard with his lack of control and his tendency to give up home runs. It was an issue in Philadelphia and a contributing factor that led him to be included in the Kyle Gibson trade back in 2021, and it is why he continues to be unusable for the Rangers. His career numbers show a pitcher that is not getting it done at this level. His career ERA over four seasons is 7.39, he has walked 53 batters and given up 26 home runs in 112 career innings. His career Fielding Independent Pitching(FIP) is 5.84. Howard is giving up 11 hits per nine innings, 2.1 home-runs per nine innings, and 4.3 walks per nine innings over his career.

I had a discussion with a twitter follower over the weekend who was trying to compare the Josh Sborz situation with Spencer Howard. Sborz has had issues throughout his career and is now pitching better than anyone in the pen. The Rangers should be rewarded for sticking it out with Sborz. The difference between Sborz and Howard is there were plenty of moments in his previous four seasons where Sborz did pitch very well. The issue with Sborz was never about his ability to pitch at this level it was always about finding that consistency. After four seasons with two different organizations and failures in both the rotation and the bullpen, I am not sure if Howard has the ability to pitch well at this level. I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Impression #2

This is a hard one for me because I really like Martin Perez, but if the Rangers play the Rays in the ALCS I do not know if Perez should be on the roster. He is a pitcher that lives on the fringes of the strike zone. He relies on umps to give him a wide zone. He tries to induce weak contact and force hitters to roll over on pitches. He thrives when teams chase his pitches outside the strike zone. The Rays though are a very high contact rate team, they do not chase very often, and they have no problem taking walks.

Tampa yesterday just beat around Perez in his 3 1/3 innings. They had 10 hits, seven runs, they worked three walks, and he only had two strikeouts. What the Rays did is force Perez to pitch in the strike zone. They did a fantastic job laying off pitches out of the strike zone or fouling it off. They only swung and missed at five of his 75 pitches. They fouled off nine of his 75 pitches. They hit seven balls that registered as hard contact.

Perez had success against Tampa in 2022. The farther we get away from last season the more it looks like it was the outlier that fans feared it was. His numbers are regressing back to his form prior to 2022. He has already given up 11 home runs this season the total he gave up in the entire 2022 season. His hits per nine is up at 11. His ERA at 4.67 is closer to his career ERA of 4.45, and his FIP of 4.90 is back in line with what it was from 2017-2021.

Perez should remain in the rotation. His record is still 6-2 and he still has more good starts than bad starts. I just think that in a playoff series against the Rays, it does not serve him or the team well to have him on the roster either in the rotation or bullpen against this team.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Impression #4

My final impression is that the Rangers are very good and the Rays are just slightly better. There was not a close game in this series. The Rays took game 1 8-3, Rangers won game 2 8-4, and the Rays took game 3 7-3. Tampa won the run differential 19-14. These two teams are both very good, they definitely are the two best teams in all of baseball. Tampa showed that right now they are the best team in baseball

Texas and Tampa are both very similar in their offensive approaches. They both make contact, both work counts, and both take advantage when runners are in scoring position. The one thing Tampa does that Texas does not do is steal bases. Tampa is first in baseball with 87 stolen bases. They are taking advantage of the larger bases in a way that Texas is not. Texas is 25th in the league at 34 stolen bases. Texas has the athletes, but they have made the decision to be more conservative. They do go first to third, and take extra bases when they can. They will only steal bases if the situation is right.

Tampa stealing so many bases also puts them into run-producing situations often. When they have runners in scoring position their batting average is third in the league at .288. Their running game also gives them more opportunities as well. They are second in the league with 604 at-bats with runners in scoring position. The Rangers' reliance on their lineup to produce those situations has served them well. In a seven-game series where the differences between teams are smaller, something like Tampa hypothetically stealing 10 bases in a series to the Rangers two could be the difference.

Texas deserves to be mentioned in the conversation with the best teams in the league. That was shown out this weekend as it has been throughout this season. This team is not going anywhere. They are going to be in the race for the division and the playoffs till the end of the year. They just are not as good as Tampa Bay right now. No one in the league is as good as the Rays are. The Rangers and Rays will meet again after the All-Star break this time in Arlington.