Texas Rangers; 4 matchups that will determine who will win the wild card round

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The Texas Rangers are once again in the playoffs. It is the franchise's ninth trip to the playoffs and first since 2016. They will be playing in the wild-card round against Tampa Bay. Texas was last playing in this round in 2012 when they took on the Baltimore Orioles. They played in the first AL Wild Card game that season. It will be a competitive series with the line between these teams being thin.

Tampa comes into the series having won 99 games this season and finishing as the runner-up to the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East. Tampa has had to endure a similar road to the Texas Rangers. They have dealt with several injuries throughout the season, most of them pitching injuries. They dealt with a high-profile story of Wander Franco being placed on administrative leave back in August. Yet they continued playing a consistent brand of baseball throughout this regular season. Tampa is a team that has a great offense and a good starting pitching staff. Tampa like Texas has had to deal with an inconsistent bullpen.

Texas enters this series having won 90 games on the season and losing the division on the final day of the regular season. They won 68 games in 2022 and 60 games in 2021 and are now back in the playoffs. They also have had to survive several injuries throughout the regular season. Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and now Jon Gray have all missed significant time throughout this season. Texas still perservered and is now back in the playoffs.

The margin between these two teams is thin despite what their records say. Offensively Texas and Tampa Bay are third and fourth or second and third in most categories. The starting rotations have the 5th and 7th ranked ERAs in baseball. Their bullpen diverge in ERAs as Tampa is 11th and Texas is 24th. Tampa does have 31 blown saves compared to Texas' 33. I think when it comes down to it these four matchups will determine who wins this series.

Next: Tampa has a need for speed in this series

#1- Jonah Heim vs Tampa Bay Ray Baserunners

Tampa is one of the best base-stealing teams in baseball. They finished fourth in the majors in stolen bases with 160 on the season. It is very much a weapon for this team and they are not afraid to be aggressive on the base paths. If they are successful they can easily turn those stolen bases into runs.

Jonah Heim will be catching every game this series. It will be on him and the pitchers to try and keep the Tampa Bay running game in check. That means for the pitchers using slide steps and being sure to look over and throw over when necessary. It means for Heim that he will need to have a quick and accurate release. Heim on the season did throw out a career-high 29% of runners this season. He also allowed more stolen bases than every other catcher in the league with 57. This is between being a weakness and a strength.

I would expect Tampa to test Heim early and often throughout this series. Texas is the opposite they do not steal bases. They rely primarily on their offense to generate runs. Tampa will have an advantage in this arena and it will be on Texas to do whatever they can to limit that advantage and ultimately to keep runners off base. If they can do that Texas will be able to keep these games close and have a chance to win the series.

Next: Sibling rivalry that will play a part in this series

#2 The Lowe Brothers matchup

This has been a story everytime that Texas and Tampa have squared off is the matchup of siblings Nathaniel and Josh Lowe. This comes a year after Aaron and Austin Nola matched up in the 2022 National League Championship Series. This will the third series between the Lowe brothers this season.

Josh Lowe had a good season for Tampa Bay. He had a .292 batting average with 20 home runs and 82 RBIs for Tampa Bay. This was his first full season playing for the Rays. If he has a good series Tampa will have a decent shot to win.

This section is going to mostly be about Nathaniel Lowe. Texas desperately needs Lowe to play well in this series. He is one of the Rangers' best overall hitters. He can hit with power, hit from foul line to foul line, and is a good run producer. That is when he is playing well. There is likely no player happier that September has come to an end than Lowe. He had a .160 batting average in September and one game of October. He had two home runs and 12 RBIs. He also struck out 34 times and grounded into eight double-plays.

Lowe was not good and he lost his job as the number three hitter by the end of the season. He was moved down to seven against left-handed pitchers and five against right-handed pitchers. That will likely not change against the Rays. Lowe does have a chance to redeem himself this postseason. The numbers all reset and it is a new season starting on Tuesday. Lowe has shown in the past that when he gets hot that he can carry an offense. If he can do that starting in this series, he could carry Texas deep into the playoffs. The talent is still certainly there, but the results have not been.

If Nathaniel's brother Josh outshines him in these games then Texas will struggle for runs much like they did against the Mariners this past weekend. It could be a short two and out for these Texas Rangers. If Nathaniel is playing well and gets multiple hits and is driving in runs, Texas will win this series.

Next: Can the best player in this series carry his team to a series win?

#3 Corey Seager vs the Tampa Bay pitching staff

I think it is pretty clear that Tampa is the better team in this series, but Corey Seager is the best player in this series. That will give Texas a shot to win it. October is where stars shine. We have seen it in the past where a single player can take over a series and lift them to heights that they did not expect. Daniel Murphy in 2015 was red-hot through October and carried the Mets to the World Series. Kike' Hernandez in 2021 carried a less talented Red Sox team past the Tampa Bay Rays in the divisional round and then to a 3-1 lead against the Astros in the championship series.

That pales in comparison to what Corey Seager did in 2020 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He was supersonic hot through all three rounds of the playoffs. He had a .350 playoff batting average, with seven home runs, and 19 RBIs across three rounds. He was the NLCS MVP and then followed that up by winning the World Series MVP. His performance in those games all at Globe Life Field likely convinced him to strongly consider Texas in his free agency a year later.

Seager this season against Tampa had a .320 batting average, with two home runs, and eight RBIs. The one game Texas did win in Tampa was a Saturday night game where he went 5-5 with a home run. In his career he has played 10 games at Tropicana Field and has a .320 batting average and a .943 OPS. He does feel comfortable hitting there. Texas needs him to lead the way and be the best offensive player in this series. If that happens Texas will win.

Next: A battle in the late innings and in the dugout that will play a massive role in the series

#4 Texas Rangers bullpen vs Tampa Bay bullpen

If you are a fan of the Texas Rangers then you are keenly aware of the struggles that the Rangers bullpen has had throughout this season. I am sure that as a fan of the Texas Rangers, there is not as much familiarity with how much Tampa's bullpen has struggled. Tampa did have 45 saves on the season far more than Texas' 30, but they blew 31 saves compared to Texas' 33. I definitely believe this series will come down to who can close out games.

The closer question for Texas has seemingly been settled with Jose Leclerc. In critical situations both on Thursday and Saturday it was Leclerc who was sent out to get those outs and not Aroldis Chapman. Leclerc whose fastball is back up to 98-99mph has been dominant in the month of September. It would appear that the late innings would likely be manned by Sborz or Hernandez in the seventh, Chapman in the eighth, and then Leclerc for the ninth. Do not be surprised if Heaney or Perez pitches in some of those situations. Texas' bullpen is improved just based on better personnel now than they did earlier in the season and earlier in September.

Tampa's bullpen has been cycled through with numerous pitchers. They have used 32 different pitchers in the bullpen this season. They do still have a lethal combo at the end of the game with Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adams, Colin Poche, and Robert Stephenson. If Tampa has a lead late do not think Texas will be able to score against those pitchers. Tampa's weakness seems to be in the middle innings. That is where they are most vulnerable. It will be on Texas to work at-bats early against the starters and get to that bullpen in the middle innings. If Texas can do that in these two or three games they can take advantage and create some distance between themselves and Tampa.

Ultimately the biggest matchup as far as bullpens will be between Kevin Cash and Bruce Bochy. It will be about how they deploy their bullpen, who they use, and when they choose to go to the bullpen. That is where the games will ultimately be decided in the minds of the managers for both of these franchises. I think Texas has the advantage there, but Kevin Cash has been in the playoffs more often recently compared to Bochy's last postseason appearance being in 2016. Bochy does have the three World Series.

This series will be determined by these four matchups and much more. As a fan enjoy this run and know that this is just the beginning of a competitive window for Texas and not the end.

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Texas Rangers: 4 Matchups that will determine who will win the wild card round