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Will the Texas Rangers sign Jordan Montgomery?

The hot stove rumors coming out of Arlington suggest a reunion might be in the works. Why this reunion with a broadcasting partner might lead to another reunion.

By Michael Sanders |
World Series - Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers - Game Two
World Series - Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers - Game Two / Jamie Squire/GettyImages
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The calendar has officially turned to 2024 and Jordan Montgomery remains a free agent. He is one of the best starting pitchers still available. It is Blake Snell, Shota Imanaga, Montgomery, and then maybe Marcus Stroman among free agents. The market is picking up, but Boras clients Snell and Montgomery remain unsigned. There is smoke out there indicating that a reunion with Montgomery might be in the works. Two questions need to be asked regarding this potential signing. First, what is holding up the signing if Texas has interest and Montgomery has interest in returning? Second, is Texas willing to give Montgomery a six or seven-year contract? Let us answer both of these questions and try to piece together whether this is something that will actually happen.

What is holding up Texas signing Jordan Montgomery?

There are probably two factors in play that are currently keeping Montgomery from signing back with Texas. First, is that Scott Boras is his agent. It is not a negative against Boras, but he does try to get every last dime he can get for his clients. That sometimes will include keeping free agents on the market into late January or early February. An example of this was Bryce Harper's signing with Philadelphia back in 2019 after pitchers and catchers had reported. He has proven that he will wait it out to get the most money for his clients. I do not think there is any rush to get this done especially with still 40 days until pitchers and catchers are supposed to report.

The second factor is the media rights deal with Bally Sports. I do think Texas is waiting to find out how much money they will get paid this season for their television rights. Jon Heyman reported in the New York Post on Thursday that there has been movement on that front. Heyman says, "there maybe a one-time payment of $90 million." If that is true then that would allow Texas to be able to sign Montgomery.

It does seem like the consensus around baseball is that Montgomery wants to return to Texas. Jon Heyman earlier this week said this in his livestream,

That was followed up by Randy Miller of NJ.com. He is a Yankees beat writer and in his latest column he said this about the Yankees and Jordan Montgomery,

The person told NJ Advance Media of a growing belief within the organization that left-hander Jordan Montgomery is headed back to the Rangers — and not returning to the Yankees.
Randy Miller

I don't think that was the case last month, but this free agency does seem to be turning in Texas' favor. Montgomery might be waiting to see what Texas will offer once the Bally Sports situation is settled. In this case, time is on the side of the Texas Rangers. Montgomery can continue to wait and if the offer is not there then he can circle back with the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies or some other team and still sign in plenty of time for Spring Training.

Will Texas be willing to meet Montgomery's demands on contract length?

This is where this is likely to be a sticking point. I think Texas can meet Montgomery on the average annual value(AAV) on the contract. The question becomes will they be willing to go six or even seven years on the contract? Texas has not guaranteed that many years to a pitcher since Yu Darvish back in 2012. They signed Darvish out of Japan for six years and $60 million. It has become something of organizational philosophy to not give out more than five years to a pitcher. deGrom got five guaranteed seasons with an option year at the end. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, and Kyle Gibson all signed for three years. Nathan Eovaldi signed for two years plus an option year and Andrew Heaney for one year and an option year. If you want to go way back both Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood signing for five years.

If reports are true then Montgomery is seeking at least six years. That would be a year longer than Texas normally likes to give out. I would think if Texas does go to six years then the sixth year will become guaranteed based on certain conditions met. That could be innings pitched in years four and five of the contract. It could be All-Star teams made or if he has won a Cy Young Award. If could be how many starts he has made. I would hope in the end that contractual length is not what keeps Texas from signing Montgomery. It absolutely could be if some other team comes in with a higher AAV and longer guaranteed contract.

Texas has to weigh how Montgomery will pitch for the life of the contract. I would think with the way he relies on command more than velocity that he will age pretty well into his mid-to-late 30's. If he can maintain the nasty curveball and sinker he throws he should be able to get batters out at a good rate for the life of the contract. Unlike some pitchers he does not have as many innings on his arm. Montgomery enters free agency with around 800 major league innings pitched. That is low compared to Aaron Nola and his 1422 innings and Blake Snell and his almost 1000 innings. I would expect despite his age of 31 that he will be a solid pitcher for at least the next few seasons and then still be good starter the rest of the contract.

Texas needs at least one more starter and Montgomery would fill that hole and give the bullpen more depth by allowing Cody Bradford to pitch out of the pen. If there is actual interest then settle the Bally Sports deal and then bring Montgomery back home. That would be a solid finish to an uneventful offseason.

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