Projected Rangers draft pick could be a risky all-or-nothing bet

Keith Law's latest mock draft has the Texas Rangers selecting an intriguing but risky player with the No. 16 overall pick: two-way high schooler Jared Grindlinger. A left-handed pitcher and batter who plays outfield, Grindlinger is essentially two players in one, but the fact that he's a high schooler makes him a risky pick. Not to mention, he was originally part of the 2027 recruiting class but reclassified to be eligible for this year's draft, meaning he's younger than the average high schooler in this year's class. Born on April 16, 2009, Grindlinger is just 17 years old. His young age makes him much more difficult to evaluate than college players.

Drafting Grindlinger would add a third two-way player to the Rangers' system, joining Josh Owens and Seong-Jun Kim. The idea of Texas adding another two-way player to its farm system is exciting, but drafting a collegiate player in the first round would be a much safer bet. Additionally, due to the pressure president of baseball operations, Chris Young likely feels, following back-to-back disappointing seasons, he may be enticed to draft a college player who can be fast-tracked to the majors with the team's first-round pick.

If the Rangers were to select Grindlinger with the No. 16 overall pick, it'd mark the second straight year Young selected a high schooler in the first round. Last year, the Rangers drafted high school shortstop Gavin Fien with the No. 12 overall pick. Young then traded Fien to the Washington Nationals as part of last offseason's MacKenzie Gore trade.

Now that we've established the negatives of drafting Grindlinger, let's take a look at the positives.

There's much to like about potential Rangers draft pick Jared Grindlinger

In his senior year with Huntington Beach High School in California, Grindlinger posted an outstanding 0.85 ERA with 66 strikeouts and 17 walks in 57 1/3 innings across 15 appearances. As a hitter, he slashed .376/.440/.560 with two home runs, 14 extra-base hits, and just two strikeouts.

MLB Pipeline has Grindlinger as the No. 18 overall draft prospect. Scouts like him better as a pitcher than a hitter, but he'd likely at least start his professional career as a two-way player if drafted by Texas. On the mound, the 6-foot-3 left-hander sits around 90-93 mph on his fastball and has reached 96 mph. As he gets older, his velocity should increase. He complements his fastball with a low-80s changeup and two types of sliders: a short, bullet one and a sweepier version. Meanwhile, Grindlinger is a contact-oriented hitter but should eventually develop more power.

If I were Young, I'd lean toward drafting a college player in the first round of this year's draft. But if he selects Grindlinger, there's still plenty to be excited about, though it's an extreme case of boom-or-bust potential.

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