Despite an uneven first two weeks of the season that included a four-game losing streak on the way to a 6-5 record, FanGraphs still believes in the Texas Rangers' chances to get back to the postseason.
Texas is inside the top 10 teams in the league and if they can perform a little bit better at the plate, they could end up in the top five moving forward.
Updated playoff odds favor Rangers more than expected
There is an old baseball adage, "You're only as good as the next day's starting pitcher" and you have to think the axiom played a part in ranking the Rangers so high as one of only 10 teams over the 50 percent mark. It certainly isn't based on the feast-or-famine results from the offense thus far.
At 52 percent, the Rangers are trailing just nine teams in early-season odds, and it has to be based on the fact that they have, except for Nathan Eovaldi's shaky first two starts, followed by a quality start against Seattle, had an abundance of good outings from guys like Jacob deGrom, MacKenzie Gore, Jack Leiter, and Kumar Rocker.
FanGraphs is surely factoring in a return to form for Big Game Nate and continued excellence from deGrom to go along with the Rangers' promising young arms as the reason behind a lofty, top-ten ranking.
2026 Playoff Chances
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 7, 2026
(rounded, via FanGraphs):
99% Dodgers
88% Yankees
83% Mets
76% Phillies
74% Braves
73% Mariners
60% Brewers
57% Tigers
54% Pirates
52% Rangers
49% Royals
48% Astros
45% Blue Jays
43% Red Sox
39% Orioles
37% Cubs
32% Rays
30% Diamondbacks
26% Guardians
25%…
Only Mariners ahead in playoff odds in the AL West
As you might expect, the defending AL West champs Seattle Mariners, are being given a 73 percent chance to return to the playoffs after returning the same team that finished with a 90-72 record and was one win away from their first World Series berth.
But it is the Rangers who are next in line within the division, slightly above the Houston Astros, who are a 48 percent.
It's an encouraging metric even though it is still so early in the season, and anything can happen over the next five months. But it shows that statistically speaking, the Rangers are being viewed pretty favorably inside the top third of the league to return to the postseason - particularly after coming up short the past two seasons following the World Series title
