Rangers have a real reason to avoid a Luis Arraez trade despite the potential fit

If the Rangers had signed Luis Arraez in the offseason and he put up the same numbers he has posted for the San Francisco Giants this season, then Texas would undoubtedly be in a better position in the standings. However, that doesn't mean the Rangers should attempt to acquire Arraez, who will likely be traded before the Aug. 3 deadline since he's on a one-year deal and San Francisco has the third-worst record in the National League (37-52) after Sunday's slate of games.

Arraez signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Giants in the offseason. The infielder made it clear he wanted to play somewhere where he could start at second base regularly, not first base, a position he played much more of the last two seasons. Somehow, after posting -9 Outs Above Average in 421 innings at second base between the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Arraez has recorded +11 OAA at second in 703 ⅔ innings this season. However, he has posted -3 Defensive Runs Saved at second in 2026, meaning his defense may not be as good as his OAA suggests. He's still undoubtedly improved defensively, but who knows how long that will last.

Giants' Luis Arraez may be due for regression, and the Rangers should beware

Meanwhile, Arraez has had a spectacular offensive season so far, slashing .326/.362/.461 (125 wRC+) with four home runs, 19 doubles, and seven triples over 84 games. It's a vast improvement from last year, when he hit .292/.327/.392 (104 wRC+) in 154 games. Because of his improvements on both sides of the ball, Arraez has already recorded the second-highest fWAR mark of his career with 3.0, already closing in on his career-best 3.4 from 2023.

Unfortunately, just like his defense, there are reasons to believe Arraez won't continue hitting as well as he has thus far in 2026. On Monday morning, Arraez held a strong wOBA of .353, but a poor xwOBA of .308 (34th percentile). It seems Arraez has taken advantage of Oracle Park's contact-hitter-friendly nature, which has likely led to more extra-base hits for the second baseman than he would have had playing for a different team. Despite a solid .461 slugging percentage, Arraez has an expected slugging percentage of .379 (33rd percentile).

The discrepancy between Arraez's performance and the underlying metrics is in many ways the greatest it has been at any point in his career. That makes it hard to trust that he isn't due for some serious regression at some point.

If the Rangers end up buying at the deadline, Arraez may be on the team's radar. However, the underlying metrics suggest president of baseball operations Chris Young should look elsewhere for an offensive boost.

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