Rangers insider plainly points out Evan Carter's biggest flaw (but it's fixable)

When Evan Carter, then 21, emerged as one of the Texas Rangers' best hitters during the 2023 World Series run, many thought the outfielder would become the next face of the Rangers. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened. This season, Carter has slashed a rough .194/.291/.321 with eight home runs over 121 games.

Toward the end of the Rangers' 6-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night, The Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant pointed out that just 53% of the balls Carter put in play this year have been line drives and ground balls. In 2023, when Carter posted a 1.058 OPS over 23 games in September and a .917 OPS over 17 games in the postseason, ground balls and line drives accounted for 80% of the balls he put in play.

Rangers' Evan Carter may need to change swing to return to form

Carter probably realizes this. Obviously, it's not easy for an MLB player to start hitting the ball on a line more often. However, Carter could work on having a more level swing. Correlation doesn't always equal causation, but in this case, it just might. If Carter can focus on getting on top of the ball with a more level swing, he could become the star we all thought he would be by now.

MLB players tend to be wary of making in-season adjustments, but Carter clearly needs to make a significant change to his approach at the plate. He's making weak contact this year, posting a 35.8% hard-hit rate. In his limited regular-season action in 2023, he had a 46.2% hard-hit rate.

Beyond that, Carter's launch angle sweet spot rate of 28.3% ranks in the fifth percentile. Essentially, he rarely hits the ball at an angle that's designed to do damage. Much of that comes in the form of infield popups, with an infield fly ball rate of 12.2%, which comes in as the 54th highest rate out of 209 hitters with at least 350 plate appearances this season.

The StatCast data shows that his bat is typically a hair late and underneath fastballs, and a bit in front of and over breaking balls. It's slight, but even a couple of fractions of a second and a couple of millimeters make a ton of difference.

Launch angle is everything these days, but in Carter's case, he needs to realize that his legs are his best asset. Whether it's stolen bases or legging out doubles on line drives in the gap, this is the best way for him to impact the game. He needs to find a way to get back to that, and with his natural ability, the homers will also come at a reasonable rate.

If Carter cannot improve at the plate over the final few weeks of the season, he needs to find a way to change for the better during the offseason. With the looming lockout, Carter should have plenty of time to adjust his swing this upcoming offseason before returning to in-game action.

On the bright side, Carter has excelled defensively this year. Despite having a well-below-average OPS, Carter has been worth 1.2 fWAR so far this year. That's not great, but it's much better than most players with a sub-.100 wRC+. Carter has posted +4 Defensive Runs Saved and +9 Outs Above Average over 875 2/3 innings between center and left field this year. Even if Carter cannot become the hitter most expected him to be after 2023, the outfielder will likely have a long MLB career due to his strong defense. He just may not be a star.

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