Rangers projected draft pick has superstar upside but a frightening floor

Several names have been linked to the Rangers who will select with the 16th overall pick in the first round. The one name that keeps popping up is Justin Lebron, a 6'2" 180-pound shortstop who just completed his junior season at the University of Alabama.

There is plenty to love about the 21-year-old who has drawn a lot of comps to the Red Sox power-hitting SS, Trevor Story. But there are also some red flags that the team needs to be aware of if they choose to pick the athletic power-hitter from the SEC.

Justin Lebron has plus power and speed that the Rangers would love, but his swing-and-miss numbers are also high

Senior writer for MLB Pipeline Jim Callis believes that Lebron has 30-30 potential. His numbers at Alabama would support that projection as he hit 16 home runs and stole 42 bases while hitting .277 this past season. He has prodigious power as indicated by his .984 OPS over his three years as a collegiate superstar.

Unfortunately, not all the numbers are positive, and some areas are cause for concern. While you would expect Lebron to make a significant leap from his first two seasons going into his third, he regressed slightly, dropping from a slash of 316/.421/.636 in his age-20 sophomore season to 277/.386/.534 in his age-21 junior season. In almost the same number of at-bats, his slugging dropped almost 40 points.

Even more concerning is that once the competition ramped up, Lebron's number dipped even more. In SEC play, he hit just .229/.328/.413. That is a massive drop off from his career numbers and cause for concern when you are considering him as a first-round pick.

Of his 46 career home runs at Alabama, 31 have come against non-conference opponents. Against conference foes, he also has struck out 99 times, with just 32 walks and a 69.2% contact rate with an alarming 28.9% chase rate. If you are swinging and missing this much against college-level competition, it's a looming harbinger of what awaits against professional pitchers who are being paid to get you out.

A deeper dive also shows disparate stats as Lebron's exit velo versus out-of-conference opponents is 94 mph. Against more talented SEC pitchers that drops down to 89.9 mph. Similarly, his barrel rate drops from 28% to just 20% against conference opponents.

We're not harping on the negatives, as MLB Pipeline has him with a plus power, arm, and speed rating. He is clearly naturally gifted and plays a smooth SS, but with Sebastian Walcott already prepped to take over for Corey Seager in the next few years, maybe the team should be looking to fill an area of need. At the same time, you can never have enough uber-talented middle infielders.

The MLB draft takes place from July 11 to July 12 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, as part of All-Star Week. Keep an eye on whether Chris Young and the scouting staff believe that Lebron is worthy of a top pick, or are deterred by the red flags.

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