Rangers projected to trade for 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, but there are questions

With what seem to be some serious payroll constraints heading into the offseason, it only makes sense that the Texas Rangers turn to the trade market to fill holes on the big league roster. However, after years of attrition, the brass finally feels as if the farm system is on the rebound.

That means that, until the pipeline is fully restocked, the Rangers will be limited to mostly buy-low kind of trades. It's also important to note that it appears that Texas is moving away from its big-spender era into a future that is more focused on sustainability.

In that vein, the folks over at Bleacher Report came up with likely trades for all 30 MLB teams and projected that the Rangers will trade for New York Yankees hurler Luis Gil. The motivating idea is that Texas could use a controllable starting pitcher, and Gil's three years of team control will be attractive to the Rangers.

That's a valid point. While theoretically the Rangers have six starters under team control for next season — Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, and Cody Bradford — things look bleak after 2027. Gore and Eovaldi will be free agents, and deGrom could join them if the team declines his $20 million club option.

It's hard to imagine Texas spending what's necessary to fill the top three spots in its rotation all in the same offseason, so planning ahead is smart. The question will be: Is Gil the guy they should target for the present and the future?

Luis Gil might not provide the Rangers with the clarity that they need

Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024, putting together a year in which he made 29 starts, threw 151 2/3 innings, and posted a 3.50 ERA while striking out 26.8% of batters he faced. It might seem curious that the Yankees would be willing to trade him now through that lens.

The truth of the matter, though, is that Gil hasn't come close to those numbers in the years since. In 2025, he suffered a lat strain that kept him out of action for a huge chunk of the year. Once he returned, he made 11 starts and recorded a 3.32 ERA. That was mostly a mirage, though. Gil's strikeouts evaporated, falling to 16.8%, while his walks ticked up to an uncomfortable 13.5%.

2026 was more of the same. The 28-year-old didn't break camp with New York, but did make some early starts in April while Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón were on the IL. The Yankees quickly abandoned that plan, though, as Gil allowed 13 earned runs over 19 1/3 innings, walking 11 and striking out just nine. Down in Triple-A, he was quickly shut down for much of the season with right shoulder inflammation.

Gil did resurface in September, this time working out of the bullpen. There he threw eight innings and posted a 1.13 ERA. Still, that's not quite enough of a sample to give one faith that he's turned it around. As a result, the expectation among Yankees beat writers is that he's a prime non-tender candidate.

While the Rangers could wait until New York is forced to non-tender him, they'd risk him signing elsewhere. Gil's projected to make just $2.3 million in arbitration in 2027, so at that price, he's worth sending the Yankees a lottery ticket to see if you can straighten him out.

With his pedigree, Gil could end up being a Cal Quantrill-like diamond in the rough. With Quantrill hitting free agency, Texas could then turn to Gil to fill a similar role — working as the long man and then transitioning into the rotation if and when a need arises.

For 2027, that makes a lot of sense. The problem is this does nothing to answer the certainty question the rotation faces in 2028. The Rangers won't know whether Gil can be an arm they can lean on as a starter once the exodus happens next offseason until the conclusion of the 2027 season. If he proves that he can return to form, great, a massive hole will be automatically filled. If he continues pitching like a pumpkin? Well, then this trade would've resolved very little.

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