Rangers should strike short-term deal with former in-state rival still on market

Every offseason, a few notable free agents linger on the market as clubs wait out the asking price. This winter, that dynamic gives the Texas Rangers an opportunity: with one rotation spot still open, they’re positioned to target a bargain short-term “prove-it” deal from the pitchers still searching for a home.

Among that list is southpaw and first-time free agent Framber Valdez, who has spent all eight of his MLB seasons with the Houston Astros.

The calendar shifting to 2026 and less than a month until pitchers and catcher report to spring training on February 10, time is running out for Valdez to have a full spring and get prepped for the year. That leaves them wondering if they've overvalued themselves and evaluating different options.

Slow market for Suarez, Valdez could lend helpful to Rangers

The Rangers are looking for a pitcher to round out their rotation in 2026. While it has been widely expected that arm would be a cheaper, low-cost option to fill the backend of the starting staff, the two lefites open up doors for Texas to potentially be creative.

Short prove it deals are more geared toward position players and relievers these days but it's not uncommon to see a starter bet on himself in a slow market year. Dodgers' pitcher Blake Snell is one of the most recent examples of a pitcher successfully pulling it off after signing a two-year deal with San Francisco with a first year opt out and using his 2024 campaign as a torpedo into a five-year, $182 million deal.

The problem with starters is that the workload demands about 25-30 starts a year and doesn't come with a cheap price-tag. Even Snell's Giants' deal was for $62 million. Cheaper deals for starters trying to prove it are usually from injuries like Dustin May, who signed a one-year, $12.5 million deal with St. Louis this offseason.

Valdez has been talented lefty throughout his career with a 81-52 record, 3.36 ERA, 1,053 strikeouts, 389 walks and a 1.220 WHIP in 188 games. Due to his struggles during his contract year, there could be wiggle room there but I don't see him comparing himself to May's $12.5 million deal and that would be Texas's best hope to land him.

Could the impending 2027 lockout give Rangers an advantage?

Another aspect the Rangers could capitalize a short-deal from is the expiration of Collective Bargaining Agreement following the 2026 season, and impending lockout next winter that is estimated to last longer than the one prior to 2022.

On one hand, players might want to get a longer term deal locked up with their teams and not have to worry about going through the exhausting free agent process again next winter. It does heavily depend on what interests they are currently garnering from respective teams.

For a player like Valdez, a bad aged-31 season means not a lot of teams are lining up at his door to offer four to five year deals with $100+ million, or he would've signed already. He could be among the pitchers ready to prove himself with a one year audition and depending on terms of new CBA, could greatly benefit in his next contract if he does pitch well.