Rangers should target this high-upside lefty in MLB Draft even if it's a slight reach

Understandable that drafting a pitcher first round for the Texas Rangers is a questionable and even out of the ordinary procedure for the organization over the last few seasons. However, how often do underrated power lefties present themselves for taking?

That's exactly the position they have with Arizona State's Cole Carlon, a 20-year-old flamethrower for the Sun Devils who is currently one of the best starting pitchers in the Big 12. His 3.73 ERA is sixth best in the conference while his 115 strikeouts lead the pack.

Going in with the 16th overall draft pick, it makes sense for the Rangers to take an offensive minded middle infielder or outfielder, which they have been projected to do thus far. And while Carlon sits anywhere between 25-40 on the draft rankings, he might be a worthy reach for Texas.

Carlon ready to be Rangers' first pitching top pick since 2022

Following the Rangers' back-to-back selections of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in 2021 and 2022, respectively, the last couple years's first round selections have centered around position players. Before that though, you had to trace back another three years to 2018 with Cole Winn.

Carlon, a junior at ASU, has appeared in 68 games since joining the Sun Devils as a freshman in 2024. The six-foot-five, 230 pound pitcher features a four-pitch mix that consists of a four-seam that touches 98 mph, a slider, curveball and changeup.

With the Sun Devils this spring, Carlon has started 13 games and has a 5-2 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 115 strikeouts and 27 walks in 70 innings pitched. His 12.79 career K/9 is the best among active D1 pitchers and he's struck out 10+ batters five different times this season.

Arizona State is currently the 22nd ranked team in the country and sits third in the Big 12 at 34-17 overall and 17-10 in conference play.

He originally made his way to starting games after a breakout year last season as a go-to bullpen arm from ASU head coach Willie Bloomquist. Earning the respect of his skipper, Carlon has primarily been the Friday starter this year.

How much of a reach is Carlon for Texas?

As of right now, MLB has him ranked the 41st prospect in baseball but ESPN's latest Mock Draft has Carlon going 18th overall to Cincinnati, while The Athletic's wasn't far behind having him as the draft's 23rd overall prospect.

Carlon is defined as "a potential quick mover with some relief risk but also a standout fastball/slider mix that he leans on heavily." Kiley McDaniel also does acknowledge he'd be a reach but not only would he likely come in under slot value but also with experience, projected to reach Double-A within the first year or two.

Since draft projections and rankings started rolling in over the last few weeks, the Rangers have been connected to mostly college ballplayers, with a couple of SEC options, an outfielder in their own backyard and a pitcher.

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