4 is the magic number to turn around a hugely frustrating Rangers season

Entering Friday's series opener against the White Sox, the Texas Rangers were sporting a middling 25–26 record that does not reflect the exceptional efforts of their pitching staff.

In fact, their team ERA sits at a sharp 3.26—third-best in Major League Baseball. But where the Rangers have thrived on the mound, they’ve faltered at the plate, averaging just 3.35 runs per game, good for 27th in the league. This offensive anemia has become a defining theme of their season so far.

But what if that weren’t the case? What if the Texas Rangers were scoring on average a consistent four runs per game? How drastically would that change their trajectory?

The Texas Rangers are a team built on arms

First, it’s important to acknowledge the strengths. The Rangers' pitching has kept them afloat. With a team ERA better than elite clubs like the Yankees and Phillies, Texas has allowed just 161 earned runs in 441.1 innings. Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, and Jacob DeGrom have provided consistent starts, while the bullpen—though occasionally volatile—has managed to limit damage more effectively than in 2024.

The problem isn’t what’s happening 60 feet, 6 inches from home plate—it's what's happening at the plate.

The Rangers have demonstrated the impact of run support

In games this season where the Rangers have scored four or more runs, they are 16–2, a .889 winning percentage that would be the envy of any playoff contender. That's not an outlier; it's a pattern. It suggests that with even modest run support, the Rangers' arms do their job more than effectively.


By contrast, in the 33 games in which Texas has scored fewer than four runs, it is 9–24. When the offense stalls, the team stumbles—no matter how well the rotation performs.

The Texas Rangers could be so much better

If the Rangers had scored exactly four runs in all 51 games played thus far, and we applied their winning percentage in 4+ run games (.889) across the entire slate:

• Projected wins: 51 games × .889 ≈ 45 wins
• Projected losses: 6 losses
• Projected record: 45–6

Now, that record might not be entirely realistic—some of those wins came against below-average teams, and it’s unlikely the team could sustain that win rate against top-tier opponents. Still, even a modest adjustment to that projection puts the Rangers much closer to the top of the AL West standings.

This is where the offense falls short

The issue isn’t just in run totals—it’s how the Rangers are creating (or not creating) scoring chances. Their team batting average sits at .227. More concerning is their production with runners in scoring position, where they’ve hit the same .227—third-worst in baseball as of mid-May. Situational hitting, once a hallmark of their 2023 championship run, has vanished.

Marcus Semien, once one of the league’s most durable and productive leadoff hitters, has struggled to reach base consistently. Joc Pederson, brought in to add power, has struggled majorly at the plate. Corey Seager’s time on the IL has interrupted any chance of rhythm in the top half of the order.

Bruce Bochy has not stood idly by. From rolling out an all right-handed lineup against Framber Valdez to shaking up defensive alignments just to keep hot bats like Josh Smith’s in the order, Bochy has tried to extract offense from every corner of the clubhouse. He’s also made tough calls, like replacing hitting coach Donnie Ecker with Bret Boone in early May—hoping that new philosophy and fresh eyes might reverse the offensive drought.

But even a manager with three rings can’t change outcomes without production.

The numbers speak for themselves. A four-run offense wouldn’t make the Rangers unbeatable—but it would make them a playoff team. Their pitching has provided a championship-caliber foundation. The question remains whether the bats can catch up—and if so, when.

The math is frustrating but simple for Texas Rangers fans: even league-average offense, even just four runs a game, could make all the difference.