The magic number all Rangers fans need to know to determine the club's trade deadline fate

Entering Friday, the Texas Rangers (39-42) were in a four-way tie for the third American League Wild Card spot with the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, and Athletics. Texas also trailed the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners by just 1 1/2 games.

Unless a team goes on an insane streak from here on out, it seems a low-80s win club from the AL will make the postseason. The question is, exactly how many games will the Rangers need to win to make the playoffs?

Over the last five seasons, the AL teams with the worst records to reach the playoffs were the 2024 Kansas City Royals, 2024 Detroit Tigers, and 2022 Tampa Bay Rays, each team winning just 86 games. The NL had even worse teams make the postseason during that span, as the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks won the NL pennant after an 84-win regular season, and the 2025 Cincinnati Reds were swept in the Wild Card round by the Los Angeles Dodgers after winning just 83 games.

Given how weak the AL is this year, let's assume 86 wins will be enough to reach the playoffs. Granted, a team with an even worse record could sneak in, as the Rangers are on pace for just 78 wins yet are tied for the third Wild Card spot. But for this exercise, let's say 86 wins is the goal for a team attempting to make the playoffs.

To reach 86 wins this season, the Rangers would need to go 47-34 the rest of the year as of Friday morning.

If you're doing the math at home, a 47-34 pace translates to 94 wins over 162 games. To reach that goal, Texas will have to play much better the rest of the season. And if they don't remain in the playoff race throughout the next five weeks, president of baseball operations Chris Young will be forced to sell at the trade deadline.

The Rangers are talented but need to play much better to make playoffs

The Rangers have plenty of talent. Corey Seager and Brandon Nimmo's expected stats suggest they have been much better than their numbers show. Wyatt Langford has been hitting at an MVP-level since being reinstated from the IL, and Jacob deGrom is Jacob deGrom.

However, Texas still has plenty of holes on its team. The starting rotation is depleted after Jack Leiter underwent ankle surgery. Luckily, left-hander Jordan Montgomery recently began a rehab assignment, but Leiter's absence could still hold the team back until Montgomery, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, returns.

Meanwhile, the bullpen's peripherals aren't great, and the offense has been among the worst in baseball. The other AL teams with records similar to Texas also have holes on their rosters, so it's not like the Rangers are much worse than their competition. Still, the Rangers need to win at a much higher rate during the second half of the season to make a playoff berth.

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