The pendulum may have swung on Rangers trade deadline plans after disastrous Astros showing

This time a week ago, it looked as if the Texas Rangers were about to take control of the AL West race. Taking three out of four from the Seattle Mariners and watching the Houston Astros scramble to convince themselves that they can fill all of their holes in a last-gasp effort to compete, it looked like the Rangers could pull away.

Now, though, the Rangers are watching it all evaporate. After dropping two out of three to the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays, they've been swept by the Houston Astros, falling out of first place and the final wild card spot in one fell swoop.

It's not just that they lost, either, but how. The offense has gone quiet since Josh Jung went on the IL. It's only been a couple of games, but Corey Seager hasn't provided the needed lift since coming back. In crucial games against a hated rival, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi both laid eggs.

Heading into Sunday's matchup in the series finale, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal posited that the Rangers' entire trade deadline strategy hinged on the outcome of that game. He suggested that a loss could lead to a sell-off, and not necessarily a mild one. He wasn't alone in those sentiments.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News echoed these feelings, writing, "The point, though, is that this version of the Rangers, built around two $30 million players, has run its course. They bought themselves a World Series, didn’t invest more dollars in it and let the farm system erode. Three years of .500 baseball is rewarding for nobody. Fans get bored. Management gets disappointed. Ownership gets frustrated about dollars seemingly wasted."

There is some nuance between Rosenthal's take and Grant's proposal. Rosenthal advocates for a complete teardown, stating that the only untouchable player should be Wyatt Langford. Grant, for as bleak as his assessment is, isn't calling for action that's as drastic. Instead, he basically suggests punting on 2026 to come back retooled and stronger in 2027.

The Rangers likely sell at the trade deadline now, but the impact will be minimal

The basic argument isn't whether or not Texas can make the playoffs. Theoretically, that's still in play, and it's not unreasonable to think that the club could string enough wins together to sneak into the October dance. But then what? There's little point to making the postseason only to get bounced right away, which is the most likely outcome.

On top of that, the Rangers have a barren farm system. Eventually, that will become an issue. Trying to compete and shore up the remaining holes will exacerbate that issue, and, once again, that seems like a fool's errand if they're just going to be eliminated in short order.

But there's a dark side to all of this. When it comes to selling, Texas doesn't have very much to offer up, either. This isn't to say that there aren't good players on the roster. The club wouldn't be teetering on the buy-or-sell brink if it didn't have talent. It's just that the talent the Rangers possess isn't going to be highly valued on the market, and there are other conditions that make coming to deals tough.

For example, trading Corey Seager is the big swing, and one that makes sense from a Rangers' point of view. The problem is convincing someone that giving up any assets for an injury-prone player in his 30s, having the worst season of his career, and who is still owed $155 million over the next five seasons is a tall task. It might be a worthwhile one before his eight-team no-trade clause becomes absolute veto power next season, but even if you can move him now, you're getting little value back.

A similar thing holds true with Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Both are effective starters, even if they are no longer aces. But both are signed to big-money deals and have that big money carry over into next season. That's tough as it is, but toss in the labor uncertainty that looms, and it's hard to find takers. Even if you do find someone willing to deal, both of these pitchers have full no-trade clauses.

So that leaves us with trading a rental like Joc Pederson and players like Jake Burger. Pederson will have a market, but a platoon DH is once again something that will only command so much. Burger has a couple more years of team control, but his limitations as a player hamstring his value to a point.

If the Rangers are willing to trade controllable veterans like Josh Jung and Ezequiel Duran, they might finally get some decent prospects coming back to Arlington. Still, neither is a superstar, and if retooling is the name of the game, trading them is counterintuitive.

One way or another, the bill for all the trades Chris Young made over the last few seasons chasing another ring will come due. Unless Ray Davis authorizes a whole new level of spending this offseason, it's hard to see things getting better from here on out. So, the most likely scenario is that the Rangers take what they can get this deadline and embrace a little bit of pain while they work to build the system back up. It's depressing, but it's the reality of the situation.

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