What should Rangers' fans expect from Jack Leiter in 2025?

After a tumultuous tenure in the minor leagues for the young right hander, Rangers fans got to see the first Major League action for Leiter in 2024. While not overwhelmingly impressive, there is plenty to improve.

Leiter was given almost impossible expectations to begin his career in Texas, which has left fans expecting more from him.

In his spring debut on Saturday, Leiter threw two scoreless innings, striking out a hitter and touching upper 90's on his fastball. While that is positive there were still signs of his lingering issue: controlling his pitches.

Getting ahead in counts and failing to put hitters away is Leiter's biggest weakness

The biggest problems for Leiter across his tenure in the big leagues is consistency and putting hitters away. There have been stretches in the minors where he has been untouchable and stretches where he is walking 3+ batters a game.

After getting ahead 1-2 to the first batter, he missed badly on the following two pitches. He has the stuff, his fastball was up to 99.9 MPH in his first outing but the misses continue to be bad misses that give the batter no questions on when to take and when to swing.

His fastball last year was one of the least valuable pitches in baseball at a -16 run value. That is not going to cut it at the big league level, but his increase in velocity could help with that.

The biggest change to his fastball is not velocity but rather the type of fastball. While still registering as a four-seam fastball, there seems to have been a sinker added to his arsenal. With his high release point, his fastball does not move comparatively to a lot of other pitchers.

Along with his four-seam, multiple fastballs registered with different movements comparative to a sinker. Leiter is a fly ball inducing pitcher, so adding a pitch that can induce more ground balls can change his game and lead to much easier outs.

Combining Leiter's low groundball numbers with his inability to put batters away when getting ahead in counts, the results were what you could've expected in 2024. If what he showcased in his first spring training outing continue to reign true, his numbers will undoubtedly improve/

The biggest problem that has been prevalent for Leiter is just consistency throughout a full season. After impressing early in the 2024 season, he was given spot start opportunities for the big league team that were disastrous.

Will Jack Leiter kick off his 2025 season in Round Rock or Arlington?

The biggest question is where Leiter starts the year. Will it be in Triple-A Round Rock or is the big leagues an option? Triple-A may benefit his long term success over being stuffed in the bullpen since the team's long term play for Leiter is in the rotation.

It is not likely he earns a starting rotation spot simply due to the high level of healthy talent already on roster. The likeliest outcome is he begins the year in Round Rock, is the 27th man for potential doubleheaders and a leading candidate as the next man up in case of injury.

Getting used to routine and getting normal time in the minors will allow him to experience a routine that is consistent to the standard. This is key and will lead him to an opportunity to flourish when the opportunity arises.

At the same time, the Rangers bullpen is still getting overhauled and a few key contributors are already projected to miss time to start the regular season. With a positive spring, Leiter could slide in to fill an absent role.

This turned from a fast rising prospect to a long term project, which is not a bad thing. Leither is only 24 which leaves him with plenty of time to get his big league career on track. Progress with prospects is not always linear and will have its ups and downs, and that is normal.

The important thing is to monitor his development this spring training. He'll want to focus on putting hitters away while ahead in the count. Transitioning from a pitcher that has a high pitch count in only 4 to 5 innings to a pitcher with 6 to 7 outings plays out better from both a player and team success standpoint. This would be the most successful outcome for his future development.

Regardless, one thing is for sure, whenever Jack Leiter steps on a mound they are must see for Rangers' fans this year. Great things are ahead for Leiter and it will be interesting to see how the 2025 Leiter compares previous iterations.