Why the Rangers should avoid breaking the bank for Teruaki Sato

There is going to be a bidding frenzy for the latest Japanese superstar who will become available to all 30 MLB teams on November 1. Teruaki Sato, a Hanshin Tigers player and current NPB Central League stud, is coming off a triple-crown season in which he hit .306 with 39 jacks and 106 RBIs. He is also the newest player from the Land of the Rising Sun to take the leap across the Pacific to play in the most elite league in the world, as Hanshin has approved his posting.

Your immediate thought is probably something along the lines of, "There's no way the Rangers will spend big money on anybody, much less a guy who hasn't played a single inning in the major leagues!" Well, Texas, along with several other MLB teams, including the Phillies, recently had scouts at the final game of the Central League Climax Series to get a good look at Sato.

Texas blowing up the budget and going all-in on Sato would be a huge mistake, and here is why.

Chris Young and the Rangers would regret going after the newest Japanese sensation, Teruaki Sato

The last time the Rangers dabbled with a Japanese superstar was in 2012 when they ponied up the $51.7 million posting fee for the imposing Yu Darvish. Later, they would throw in a cool $60 million to get him in a Rangers uniform. Darvish had several good seasons with the club, but never met the lofty, and perhaps unrealistic, expectations that the team and fans had for him.

Almost 15 years later, it appears that the club is taking a good look at Sato. To be clear, we're all for the Rangers having a look-see at the shiny, new international player, but it shouldn't go any further than kicking the tires.

Sato's numbers are impressive and have improved each of the last three seasons. Still, if you look at his advanced metrics combined with the results of recent imports like Munetaka Murakami of the Chicago White Sox and Kazuma Okamoto of the Toronto Blue Jays, you will see that Sato would not be the answer the Rangers are looking for.

Sato's concerning metrics include a 32.6% chase rate, leading to a 32.4% whiff rate. Put more simply, he swings at balls out of the strike zone far too frequently. The last thing the Rangers need is another guy with poor plate discipline. Plus, he will be coming over to face pitching that will be beyond anything he has seen before in the NPB.

If you look at a really good comp like Murakami, you can glean what you might get from a guy like Sato. Sure, Murakami mashed more than his fair share of dingers (35), but he hit just .207 and struck out a whopping 196 times in 454 at-bats. That is roughly every other time he steps to the plate.
He also hit .273 in his final season in Japan before the transition.

Another great comp is Okamoto. He also put up nice power numbers, hitting 33 homers. Still, he, like Murakami, struck out an alarming 183 times and hit .232 with a middling 2.5 bWAR. By the way, he hit .327 in his last season in Japan. Do you see the pattern here?

Young and the Rangers should be looking to avoid any and all players who swing from their heels and are completely fine with striking out and having a useless at-bat. We've seen what those players look like (Hi there, Joey Gallo!) and how they can bog down an offense.

On top of all his offensive flaws, there is already talk that he will have to move from third base across the diamond to first because of his so-so glove at the hot corner. No, thank you. We already have a first baseman who strikes out too much and doesn't do much else in Jake Burger. Burger hit .230 with 28 homers. Are 5-8 more homers worth roughly 50 more Ks per season? Don't think so. Especially at $20 million a year.

In 2026, the Rangers were at their best when they were playing so-called "small ball", moving runners along the basepaths and scrapping to get them home. When they struggled, players like Burger, Corey Seager, and Wyatt Langford were going to the plate trying to hit five-run homers. And none of those three current Rangers struck out anywhere close to the rate at which some of the left-handed-hitting, one-dimensional, foreign-born sluggers do.

The point is, at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field, where home runs go to die, spending what will likely be around $20 million per year on an all-or-nothing hitter doesn't make any sense at all.

Sato may come over and be the Shohei Ohtani or Ichiro-like exception, but we don't see that being the case. Young has a middle-of-the-pack bankroll from Ray Davis and the ownership group, and he has to spend every penny wisely.

Sato doesn't appear to be that generational NPB shooting star, and dropping a big-money, multi-year contract on him could set the franchise back for years.

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