Predicting The Over/Under on Rangers Starting Pitching Projections

Tyson Ross

• ZiPS projection – 1.6
• Over/Under – Over?

Tyson Ross may be the Rangers biggest wildcard heading into 2017. If he can revert back to his San Diego Padres form he can become ace number three in the rotation. Unfortunately, there isn’t a big enough sample of pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome to comfortably predict how Ross will bounce back.

Some pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Shaun Marcum’s careers were essentially derailed upon returning from the injury. To be fair, Carpenter was already in his late 30’s by the time he was diagnosed with the injury.

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Other players such as Chris Young and Kenny Rogers saw success after returning. Chris Young won the MLB Comeback Player of the Year award in 2014 and won a World Series in 2015 with the Royals. Matt Harrison saw his best seasons as a Ranger after receiving treatment for the injury in 2009.

If Ross can stay on pace to return in early May and responds positively to treatment, he will shatter his projections. In his last two full seasons Ross has produced a combined 7.6 WAR. He was an All-Star in 2014 but arguably had his best season in 2015.

Ross’ strikeouts per nine innings and ground ball rate were steadily increasing heading into his injury shortened 2016 season. If he can revert to form this is an easy over, but only time will tell.

Prediction – 2.2 WAR