Texas Rangers Trade Feature: Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels is the top name among Texas Rangers trade bait. We’ll look at his case to stay or leave, along with potential suitors and prospect returns.

Texas Rangers ace Cole Hamels has been the talk of the town lately. Reason being, there is a good chance he leaves town very soon. Trade murmurs have already become frequent and reports indicate Hamels could be moved before the all-star break (July 16th-19th).

It seems inevitable that the Rangers will deal the 34-year-old left-hander; however, there are a few hurdles to climb. Cole Hamels does have limited no-trade protection, meaning he will have his say in most negotiations. Texas also has a team option on Hamels for the 2019 season. More likely than not, Hamels will want a guarantee that his option will be exercised by whichever team he may end up with for the rest of this season.

Of course, he hasn’t been traded yet. Maybe the Texas Rangers will keep him…he’s still here until he’s gone. But, in all likelihood, Hamels will be gone by the July 31st trade deadline. Let’s breakdown his case to stay, his case to leave, potential landing spots and potential trade returns.

Is there any chance Cole Hamels stays?

As we stand, I’ll say there is a whopping 1-5% chance Hamels stays with the Rangers through the trade deadline. Even with 11 wins in their last 13 games, the Texas Rangers are 16.5 games out of first place in their division and 16 games out of a wildcard slot. Plus, GM Jon Daniels is already prepping for a minor rebuild.

What does an organization do to begin a rebuild? It sells of their top veteran players. Cole Hamels happens to fit the criteria.

Frankly, the only thing that would prevent Texas from dealing Hamels is if they cannot get a favorable return. Hamels is the Rangers’ top trade piece; therefore, they are going to want one or two promising prospects coming back in a potential trade.

Because his name is out on the market so early in the trade season, it is very probable the Rangers will come across an eventual deal to their liking. And once they do, goodbye Cole Hamels.

Trading Cole Hamels is the only option

There are only a few outcomes…

The Rangers keep Hamels and he wins 10 games in 2018 for a team that will not make the playoffs. They pick up his 2019 option and he wins 10 to 15 games in 2019. Again, for a team that will not make the playoffs. Texas can hope he pitches better next year to increase his value; though, that is unlikely as Hamels will be one year older with an additional 200+ innings of stress on his left arm.

On the other hand, they can trade him right now, when they have a great understanding of his value.

Hamels has an outstanding postseason pedigree, including a World Series MVP from the ’08 season with the Philadelphia Phillies. He hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s still managed a 3.61 ERA. From the perspective of contending teams, he is not an ace. Rather, he’ll likely find himself third or fourth in a contending rotation. Still, third or fourth is just as important as first or second come the playoffs.

The Texas Rangers also benefit in the sense that the trade market for starting pitchers is fairly bare this year. Cole Hamels stands out as one of the top names. Unlike other rumored starters, such as Chris Archer and J.A. Happ, Hamels has extensive postseason experience. Moreover, he has World Series experience.

Now is the opportune time to cash in on Cole Hamels.

Where might Cole Hamels end up?

Seattle?

Recent rumors have Cole Hamels linked to the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are currently half a game back from the Houston Astros for fist place in the AL West. They’ve had tremendous success this season; however, their starting pitching is spotty.

Apart from James Paxton, Seattle does not have a reliable starter. Felix Hernandez is not what he once was, as is indicated by his 5.11 ERA this season. Marco Gonzalez, Wade LeBlanc, and Mike Leake are having nice seasons, but none of them are ideal for late-season or playoff pressures.

It’s tough to win in the postseason with one reliable starter. Cole Hamels makes a good case as a reliable starter. He’s no longer a guy that will guarantee seven innings of two or three run baseball, but he is a guy that will keep his team in the ballgame. Also, the idea of pitching for a contender should enhance Hamels’ performances.

New York?

The Yankees are expected to anxiously search the trade market for starting pitching help. They have a lot of questions marks beyond ace Luis Severino. C.C. Sabathia has been a pleasant surprise, but he’s 37 years old and hasn’t thrown over 150 innings since 2016. He may or may not reach the mark this season; however, his innings will really stack up in the postseason.

In addition, Masahiro Tanaka is currently on the DL as he seems to be quite often, and Sonny Gray has been on a downward trend all year-long. Point being, the Yanks need to come away with at least one proven arm this trade season.

Cole Hamels would be that. He may not be the Yankees’ first choice, but he’ll be much more affordable than Jacob deGrom. New York has the farm system to front a nice return for Texas as well.

The Texas Rangers could spice a potential deal by adding in a reliever. New York has two left-handed pitchers in their bullpen, Aroldis Chapman and Chasen Shreve. Of course, they don’t need any help with Chapman, but they could use an improved spot reliever from Shreve. Shreve has a 4.97 ERA in 2018. A reliever such as Jake Diekman would be a nice improvement from the left side out of the pen.

Philly?

How about a Cole Hamels return to the Philadelphia Phillies? It certainly seems possible. The Phillies are ahead of schedule in the pursuit of the postseason. They have the young talent to swap for a playoff-ready pitcher. A Cole Hamels addition would make for a menacing top three in the rotation with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta.

Philly has the talent to make it to the postseason, but they need another stopper in the rotation if they want to compete with the other National League contenders.

Might Jake Diekman spruce up this offer too? Or maybe Keone Kela? The Phillies have the 22nd ranked bullpen in MLB. Needless to say, they could use another power arm in the pen. Diekman could be a good fit; though, Kela is the greater need. Hamels and Kela combined would warrant the return of a high quality prospect.

Milwaukee?

Here’s a sleeper. The Milwaukee Brewers have edged the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central to this point. Even so, it still seems the Cubs are much more so built for the postseason. Why? Because the Cubs have top-notch starting pitching.

The Brewers’ starting staff has held up this year, but it has the same problem as the Yankees and Phillies…it needs a playoff arm. Their rotation has zero postseason experience. Literally, zero. Thus, they could use a pitcher like Hamels. Heck, he might even fit in as the ace in the Milwaukee rotation.

The Brewers absolutely need to obtain a quality starting pitcher this trade season. If they don’t then they’ll have no shot at a postseason run. In fact, they might not even make the postseason.

As food for thought, what about adding Jurickson Profar in a package deal with Hamels? Profar does not have a consistent position with the Texas Rangers and the Milwaukee Brewers are struggling to find a fit at shortstop given the disappointing season in which Orlando Arcia has had.

The Rangers could really get something special back if they combine Hamels and Profar.