Texas Rangers Rumors: Cody Allen on the free agent radar

Reports link the Texas Rangers to free agent reliever, Cody Allen. After many great seasons, Allen had an underwhelming 2018. Should Texas sign him?

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Texas Rangers are in contact with free agent reliever Cody Allen. Allen is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he posted a 4.60 ERA and blew five saves in 32 opportunities.

Prior to 2018, however, he was one of the better closers in Major League Baseball. The right-hander pitched five consecutive seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. He also averaged 11.96 K/9 during that span.

It’s difficult to exact why Allen was so much worse in 2018. Opponents hit .231 against him compared to .221 the season before. That’s not any sort of dramatic difference. His strikeout totals were consistent with the past, as was his workload.

His struggles were in three areas: Increased walk rate, increased fly ball rate, and a lower fastball velocity.

Allen walked a career high 4.4 batters per nine innings. After allowing hitters to reach base 33% of the time in 2017, he allowed them to reach base 36.4% of the time in ’18. Everyone knows walks are no good, and Allen afforded way too many of them a season ago.

It didn’t help that the increased number of baserunners coupled with an increased fly ball rate against the Indians’ closer. His 50.6% fly ball rate last year was also a career high, as was his 11 home runs given up. Ultimately, opposing hitters slugged .410 against him in 2018 compared to .364 in 2017.

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Lastly, Cody Allen’s velocity was down. His fastball velocity dropped from 94.3 mph in ’17 to 93.5 mph in ’18. He throws only two pitches (fastball and curveball); therefore, he will struggle mightily if one is not at its best. That seemed to often be the case in a down 2018 season.

So, after everything I just mentioned, should the Texas Rangers sign him?

As long as the price is reasonable, I don’t see why not. He made $10.5 million last season with Cleveland. Though, I don’t see him coming near that in 2019. Closers have a small window. One bad season and teams will often believe a closer’s best work is behind him. With Allen being 30 years old, he doesn’t have the luxury of potential.

From the Rangers’ standpoint, they wouldn’t be paying him closer money. That title is solely Jose Leclerc‘s. Thus, Texas may not have a fighting chance at signing Allen if another team offers him a closer role.

If, however, his market value drops to that of a setup man, the Rangers have a good shot. It’s tough to see the organization offering him anything more than a one-year contract. One year at $5-6 million seems doable.

The Texas Rangers not signing Cody Allen would not be the end of the world. There are other worthy options available in free agency. I’m not as concerned about Allen’s inflated flyball rate or walk rate as I am his reduction in fastball velocity.