Texas Rangers: Which member of the 25-and-under club has the highest ceiling?
The Texas Rangers have instilled great faith in their young offensive core. But which member of the core will make the biggest mark on MLB?
Texas Rangers fans have heard a lot about youth lately. Going through a rebuild, the organization is hanging its hat on minor league talent and a young core of big league players. Time will tell how the prospect hype will play out; however, we’ve already gotten a strong taste of the young Rangers core.
Joey Gallo is entering his 3rd full season at the age of 25, Nomar Mazara is 23 years old and entering his 4th season, and Rougned Odor is 25 and entering his 6th season. A ways behind is 24-year-old Willie Calhoun, but the Rangers feel he can become a great offensive talent with a little more discipline and development.
Texas sees something great in each of these guys. That’s why they acquired Calhoun, extended Odor’s contract, and continue to hold onto Gallo and Mazara, who are their two biggest trade assets.
If the team plans to compete for a championship in the next few years, they need a star. Not just a Rangers recognized star, but a nationally recognized star.
Four great talents, which one can become part of MLB’s elite? Which one has the most to offer the Rangers long-term? Which member of the 25-and-under club has the highest ceiling?
Willie Calhoun
Calhoun ranked as the Texas Rangers’ #2 prospect just over a year ago. He was seen as left-handed bat with good pop and the ability to hit for a high average. Those observations have been justified at the Triple-A level.
Between the Oklahoma City Dodgers and Round Rock Express in 2017, Calhoun carried a slash line of .300/.355/.572, hit 31 home runs and posted a .927 OPS. He played 108 games with Round Rock last season and slashed .294/.351/.431 with 9 home runs.
For whatever reason, his success has not translated to the major leagues in any capacity. Calhoun stepped to the plate 108 times with the Rangers in 2018; he hit .222 and reached base just 27% of the time.
Frankly, his stock has only gone down since he was acquired by the Rangers in the Yu Darvish trade. There is still plenty of time for the 24-year-old to figure it out in the big leagues, but Texas doesn’t have the space for wish-washy performances. Calhoun isn’t good enough at any defensive position to make an impact; therefore, he MUST hit. He has not hit well with the Rangers thus far.
Willie Calhoun is the least promising member of the young core. He has yet to prove capable at the MLB level, while the other members have.
Joey Gallo
It took one year for Joey Gallo to establish himself as one of the top power hitters in MLB. His 41 home runs in 2017 ranked 5th in baseball and his 40 home runs in 2018 ranked 3rd. Gallo’s power is without question, though he has enough weaknesses for his potential to be questioned.
Gallo is a new age hitter. His offense is all about launch angle, exit velocity and the Three True Outcomes. He’ll rank towards the top in those three statistics likely for his entire career. While his strength and power are in a league of their own, improvements in other areas of his game could promote him from good to great.
Gallo hit .206 in 2018, three points down from 2017. His OBP was down 21 points, OPS down 59 points, and strikeouts up 11 (though he did record 51 more at-bats). Do those differences indicate he’s getting worse? Absolutely not. Do they indicate he’s getting better? Not really.
That’s the problem with Joey Gallo thus far in his brief career. It just seems like he is what he is. He won’t get worse, but can he get better?
Power will always be there, but he won’t take the next steps until he can increase his contact rate and perform better in the clutch. Imagine how dominant of a season he would have if hitting .230 and striking out less than 170 times.
Once he does that, he will be one of the most feared hitters in all of major league baseball. He would put the ball in play more often, meaning more extra-base hits, more RBI and a higher OBP. Until he does that, his ceiling will be up for debate.
Rougned Odor
Five years into his major league career and it’s still tough to set expectations for Odor. He can be one of the least productive hitters in baseball or one of the toughest outs in baseball. Unfortunately, his performances have weighed towards the former more often than the latter in his career.
The 2018 season was a microcosm of his first five. He got off to a miserable start on the year, hitting .206 in April and .203 in May. The low statistic of April was his .265 SLG%. The low statistic of May was his .225 OBP. He failed to post an OPS over .600 in the first two months and amounted just one home run.
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But, like the spark of a fire, Odor turned things around come June, and he was white-hot in July. He slashed .259/.354/.412 in June with three homers. In July, he slashed an insane .341/.410/.625. His OPS was a 1.035! That’s Mike Trout territory.
There was a noticeable difference in plate discipline. His 35.4 chase% was his lowest since 2015 (35.1%). He swung at the fewest percentage of pitches in his career (47.6%) and made contact at his highest rate since 2015.
The June-August version of Rougned Odor would make him one of the top 2B in major league baseball. On the other hand, the April/May version would make him one of the worst hitters in major league baseball.
He was recognized as MLB Player of the Week twice last season. He was also a finalist in Gold Glove nominations.
Odor has a ton of talent. He just needs to put it all together for a year. His ceiling is very high, and the good news is he’s only 23 years old.
Nomar Mazara
Nomar Mazara is the purest hitter the Texas Rangers have. He has that envious smooth left-handed swing with plenty of natural leverage, length and strength. If anything, his swing is a little too long, which has given him some trouble against high-velocity pitchers.
He covers the entire plate, hits the ball to all fields, and, when he gets a hold of one, clears the fences as easily as just about anyone in baseball. Mazara’s hitting ability and plate approach are very advanced for his age.
The eye test hasn’t quite translated to the statistics just yet. He’s had three solid seasons, but no breakout one. In the very near future (hopefully 2019), Mazara will put together an All-Star campaign. He’ll hit close to .300, blast 30+ homers and drive in 110+ runs. He has that kind of potential.
“The Big Chill” is who the Rangers should build their lineup around for years to come. While he may never be a guaranteed glove in the outfield, it’s his hitting that will earn him All-Star appearances and lucrative contracts.
Nomar Mazara has the highest ceiling of the Texas Rangers’ age 25-and-under club.