Texas Rangers: Kyle Gibson Signing and its Effect on Free Agency

The Texas Rangers made their first impact signing of free agency bringing in RHP Kyle Gibson. How does that affect plans moving forward?

The Texas Rangers had plans to bolster their starting rotation this offseason and did so early bringing in right-hander Kyle Gibson on a three-year, $30 million deal per Jeff Passan of ESPN, who was first to report the terms of the deal. The club has yet to confirm this deal and it is pending a physical but it has been confirmed by local reporters.

Those terms, as you’ll remember, are identical to the ones Texas gave Lance Lynn last offseason and similar to the three-year, $28 million deal they gave Mike Minor the year before. Both those deals paid off big time for the Rangers and no doubt Texas is hoping that Gibson, a pitcher of a similar tier to Lynn and Minor, can find the same sort of rejuvenation in Arlington.

Gibson spent the first seven years of his big league career with the Minnesota Twins and has had a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to results. His best season by far came in 2018 when he made 32 starts for the Twins throwing 196.2 innings, the highest total of his career. He posted a 3.62 ERA in 2018 with a  4.13 FIP and 2.6 fWAR. He matched that fWAR rating last season but his ERA was significantly worse at 4.84 in 29 starts, 34 total appearances.

Interestingly enough, his xFIP last season was a 3.80 which is actually better than his 3.91 xFIP in his 2018 career year. The xFIP stat is similar to FIP, which is fielding independent pitching, but instead of using the pitchers home run rate, it uses the league average home run rate to determine an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching number. That ERA-like number, gives a more realistic view of the pitchers ability when all other factors are more or less equal. In short, that 2019 xFIP suggests Gibson pitched at a solid level last season despite the elevated ERA.

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What Effect Does His Signing Have?

As of now, Gibson logically slots into the number three spot in the Rangers’ rotation. However, if all goes according to the plan I’m assuming Jon Daniels and the front office staff currently have laid out, their hoping Gibson goes from a respectable third starter, to a very good fourth starter. At just $10 million per year over the next three seasons, Gibson doesn’t eat up too much payroll meaning if Texas has the opportunity to sign one of the better starters on the market they can. However, he is insurance in case they can’t get a deal done with another starter. The Rangers went the route of having a Plan B in place before finding out if Plan A would work or not. If Plan A works,  already moving on Plan B means not only are they better overall, but it cost them only an extra $10 million.

Nobody really knows how much Texas is looking to or at least willing to spend this offseason. My floating theory is that Daniels and the Rangers have multiple budget plans from which they’re operating. If Texas can get all of their Plan A options, they may be willing to balloon the payroll knowing they can be instant competitors. If those routes fall through, Texas probably limits the payroll knowing they still have the financial space to play in the market over the next few years. Bringing in Gibson fits into both of these models well. He either is a very good addition to upper tier signings, or a solid independent signing that lets Texas continue to get better without throwing away payroll on unsuccessful seasons.