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Nolan Writin predictions for the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles ALDS matchup

The Nolan Writin crew is back. We have digested the Rangers' series against Tampa Bay and studied up and have predictions for how we think the ALDS will turn out.

By Michael Sanders , Brian Sweet , Jesse DeTienne , Lorenzo Almanza , Stephen Francis , West Jones |
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game Two
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game Two / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages
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The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will kick off their first ever divisional round matchup on Saturday afternoon at Orioles Park. The two teams played in the first-ever one-game AL Wild Card playoff back in 2012. Baltimore won that game and moved on to the divisional round. These two teams go at it again in October for a chance to play in the AL Championship Series. All of our writers have examined this matchup from every angle and we watched the wild card round intently. We are now back with our predictions for the divisional round.

Stephen Francis

So please let me start by saying I've never been happier about being wrong. I was only half wrong. I did begin the Wild Card prediction by saying that I believed the winner of game one would take the series. But indeed, I was wrong about which team would do it and in how many games ... okay so like 67% wrong. Okay, so I'll just admit I was wrong and move on. This series honestly looks a lot like the Tampa series did. The difference in this one though, is that both teams met much earlier in the season, so there are a lot more intangibles at play here. Both have undergone some changes since late May, making it a little harder to know what to expect. 

Here are some key things to consider, though. The Rangers outscored the Orioles in season meetings by a score of 26-19. Baltimore named Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez to start for the first two games, while Bochy has decided to go with Andrew Heaney and Jordan Montgomery. Bradish looked really good against the Ranger lineup in his small sample size. (Remember, one game was cut short by injury.) On the other hand, Rodriguez took it on the chin both times he faced Texas. 

This is why I expect a split in Baltimore to start the series, and then the Rangers will take care of business at home in the first two playoff games they'll ever play at Globe Life Field. This fanbase has been waiting for this time for a very long time, and this team has figured out how to put things into high gear under high pressure. That's right ... Rangers in four with no need for a return trip to Camden Yards.

Prediction: Texas Rangers in 4

Lorenzo Almanza

The Texas Rangers won their first playoff series since 2011. But, just how far can they go? Assuming the bats continue to rack up runs, and the pitching stays consistent, then the sky is the limit for the team.

I believe the Rangers' celebrations will continue past Baltimore. This is definitely going to be a tough series, as the Orioles have the best record in the American League.

Adolis Garcia will rise to the occasion and be the difference maker in this series. He will continue where he left off in game 2 against Tampa Bay. I expect him to hit two home- runs this series.

The series will go five games, as Texas’ pitching will be put to the test.I have the Rangers winning a nail bitter. Give me Texas in five!

Prediction: Texas Rangers in 5

Brian Sweet

The Texas Rangers shocked the baseball world by sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Wild Card Series. The Rangers got superb pitching performances from Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi and the bullpen.

Evan Carter and Corey Seager provided some much-needed offense against the Rays to help them advance to the American League Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished the regular season with 101 wins for the first time since 1979.

The Rangers will have a shot in this series if they can get Jon Gray or Max Scherzer back from injury. However if the Rangers get neither of those pitchers back, it could be a very quick series. The Orioles have one of the best young bats in the league with Adley Rutschman who finished with a .277 batting average this season. Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins are other threats on the Orioles roster that the Rangers' pitching staff will have to deal with.

The Rangers are going to have to play perfect baseball if they want to make it to the Championship Series. I know the Rangers had a good season this year but with the injury to Jacob DeGrom and the uncertain availability of Gray and Scherzer, the Orioles look like they will have the upper hand in this series.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles in 4

Andrew Sanford

Rest is the momentum killer, especially when it comes to postseason baseball. I’m sure there are a few exceptions, but I’ll never forget the red-hot Rockies of 2007. After a 13-inning Wild Card win against the San Diego Padres, Rocktober would go on to sweep the Phillies and Diamondbacks. Great news! Almost. The Rockies had to wait nine days before playing their World Series opponent, the Red Sox, who were now the ones on fire. They swept Colorado in four.

The Orioles don’t have to wait nine days before playing the Rangers. They will be less than a week removed from their last plate appearances. Still, that amount of downtime could prove detrimental, especially for such a young team. The Orioles youth makes them a great team, but postseason experience is paramount. Lucky for the Rangers, we have quite a bit of that.

Bruce Bochy’s three World Series wins inspire confidence. Corey Seager’s World Series MVP Trophy ain’t bad either. Nathan Eovaldi is back to pitching like his 2018 self, and Jordan Montgomery is fired up and dealing like someone who’s been here before. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Max Scherzer could maybe return for the ALDS, more than making his Mad moniker matter.

It won’t be easy. The Rangers need more than a few guys with familiar feelings. We need our bats to stay as hot as they were against Tampa Bay. Camden Yards won’t be empty like the Trop. But, with an abundance of rest and less postseason experience, I believe the Orioles will fall in the Texas Rangers' second-ever playoff game in Globe Life Field, which will be full of fans clamoring for a return to the ALCS.

Prediction: Texas Rangers win 3-1

Jesse Detienne

The Baltimore Orioles thrive off of Adley Rutschman. In 2022 in all games he didn't play in, they went 20-29. In games he at least played in, they went 63-50 and won 60 of those he started.

Fast forward to 2023. The Orioles went 101-61 and in game Adley played, they went 95-59. You do the math. The Orioles are a better team since he has been called up.

If the Texas Rangers want to win the ALDS against the O's, they must eliminate or slow down his at-bats. The Orioles in game one and two have announced their starters and Kyle Bradish (12-7 2.83 ERA) sports a 1.35 ERA against Texas and pitched a 2.23 home ERA. 

The Orioles game two starter, Grayson Rodriguez (7-4 4.35 ERA) boasts a 10.80 ERA against the Rangers in two starts. My prediction is Rangers in four. If the Rangers can get another solid performance from the pitching, this series can be a relief for the lineup to produce as they did against Tampa Bay in the ALWCS. Evan Carter's patience at the plate and his defense in the outfield will be a major key for Texas. Series MVP: Corey Seager. Seems like the go-to pick for his playoff experience, but I think he sets the tone for the lineup.

Prediction: Texas Rangers in 4

West Jones

The oddsmakers have this series between the Rangers and the Orioles as a virtual dead heat. While I would like to take that approach as well and call it a tossup, a prediction piece without a prediction does not work very well. The Rangers looked nearly unbeatable in the Tampa Bay series, and I do not see this one as a sweep, but I do see it as another Rangers series win.

After dropping the first game of the series, the Rangers will bounce back to get the much-needed split in Baltimore with a win on Sunday. After finally returning home, after being on the road since the night of Sunday, September 24th, the boys will be fired up to play in front of the raucous fans at Globe Life Field on Tuesday. Nathan Eovaldi will again take care of business, notching the victory and setting up a potential series clincher for Game 4.

Heaney will again throw an abbreviated start on short rest, but it will be Martin Perez who shines out of the bullpen, by pitching a gem in long relief. The Rangers offense will continue to barrel up the ball and the Rangers will take the series in four, three games to one. Adolis Garcia will be the MVP of the series as he mashes multiple home runs and continues to drive in a silly number of runs. 

Prediction: Texas Rangers in 4

Michael Sanders

I think I was the only one who had Texas in a sweep in the last round. So, how do I follow that up in this round. I pick sweep again. When Texas gets rolling it is hard to stop them. They had a six-game win streak out of the All-Star break, an eight-game win streak right after the trade deadline, then a five game win streak in September that concluded with the sweep of the Mariners in Arlington. This team enters this series on a two-game winning streak. I don't see it as outrageous that they could win another three in a row.

The key to this happening is getting the win in game 1. If they can do that with Andrew Heaney on the mound and then have a rested Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi pitching back-to-back they can finish this is off in three. That would allow them to be able to set their rotation for the championship series and get that rest that they will be needing.

I think the most important player in this series will not be a pitcher but a hitter. It will be Josh Jung. He got back on track in game two against Tampa with two doubles and a triple. If he can drive the ball into those expansive gaps at Orioles Park then he will have a great series and drive in several runs. If he is still hitting eighth with Evan Carter behind him that would make the lineup even more lethal than it already was. All of that to say Texas Rangers win in 3 as Baltimore is still a year away.

Prediction: Texas Rangers in 3

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